Arthur Henrique secured a commanding 60.87% of valid votes in Roraima’s June 2026 supplementary gubernatorial election, far ahead of Soldado Sampaio, establishing a clear voter mandate that underpins the current market consensus. His candidacy remains sub judice due to a prior eligibility challenge over resignation deadlines, with the outcome pending final judicial review by electoral courts. Traders assign him dominant probability because the decisive margin would normally preclude a runoff or reversal, while alternative candidates trail far behind in both the special-election results and subsequent polling for the October 2026 regular contest. A court ruling disqualifying Henrique could reopen the field, potentially triggering a new vote or installing another contender, though such an outcome remains a lower-probability scenario given the established results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Henrique 91%
Rosi Aires 5.0%
Soldado Sampaio 2.9%
Farah Mesquita 2.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
91%
Rosi Aires
5%
Soldado Sampaio
3%
Farah Mesquita
3%
Clébio Genuíno
<1%
Arthur Henrique 91%
Rosi Aires 5.0%
Soldado Sampaio 2.9%
Farah Mesquita 2.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
$2,927 Vol.
91%
Rosi Aires
$222 Vol.
5%
Soldado Sampaio
$183 Vol.
3%
Farah Mesquita
$153 Vol.
3%
Clébio Genuíno
$281 Vol.
<1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique secured a commanding 60.87% of valid votes in Roraima’s June 2026 supplementary gubernatorial election, far ahead of Soldado Sampaio, establishing a clear voter mandate that underpins the current market consensus. His candidacy remains sub judice due to a prior eligibility challenge over resignation deadlines, with the outcome pending final judicial review by electoral courts. Traders assign him dominant probability because the decisive margin would normally preclude a runoff or reversal, while alternative candidates trail far behind in both the special-election results and subsequent polling for the October 2026 regular contest. A court ruling disqualifying Henrique could reopen the field, potentially triggering a new vote or installing another contender, though such an outcome remains a lower-probability scenario given the established results.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$3,766End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique secured a commanding 60.87% of valid votes in Roraima’s June 2026 supplementary gubernatorial election, far ahead of Soldado Sampaio, establishing a clear voter mandate that underpins the current market consensus. His candidacy remains sub judice due to a prior eligibility challenge over resignation deadlines, with the outcome pending final judicial review by electoral courts. Traders assign him dominant probability because the decisive margin would normally preclude a runoff or reversal, while alternative candidates trail far behind in both the special-election results and subsequent polling for the October 2026 regular contest. A court ruling disqualifying Henrique could reopen the field, potentially triggering a new vote or installing another contender, though such an outcome remains a lower-probability scenario given the established results.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$3,766End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arthur Henrique secured a commanding 60.87% of valid votes in Roraima’s June 2026 supplementary gubernatorial election, far ahead of Soldado Sampaio, establishing a clear voter mandate that underpins the current market consensus. His candidacy remains sub judice due to a prior eligibility challenge over resignation deadlines, with the outcome pending final judicial review by electoral courts. Traders assign him dominant probability because the decisive margin would normally preclude a runoff or reversal, while alternative candidates trail far behind in both the special-election results and subsequent polling for the October 2026 regular contest. A court ruling disqualifying Henrique could reopen the field, potentially triggering a new vote or installing another contender, though such an outcome remains a lower-probability scenario given the established results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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