Recent September 2026 polling places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 36–42% range for the October 4 first round, with Datafolha at 39%, Quaest at 36%, CNT/MDA at 40.5%, and Nexus at 42%. These figures reflect a tightening contest against Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL, who trails by 4–10 points amid vote fragmentation to candidates such as Augusto Cury. Lula’s position benefits from incumbency and unified center-left support, while economic stability and the absence of major new scandals have kept his numbers steady near historical re-election benchmarks. Traders assign the highest probability to the 44%+ bucket, consistent with the upper end of recent surveys and the typical first-round performance of sitting presidents, though lower readings in some polls sustain meaningful probability on the 41–44% and 35–38% intervals. The October 4 vote and any final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated41-44% 40%
44%+ 34%
35-38% 19%
38-41% 19%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
8%
35-38%
19%
38-41%
19%
41-44%
40%
44%+
34%
41-44% 40%
44%+ 34%
35-38% 19%
38-41% 19%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$22 Vol.
8%
35-38%
$0 Vol.
19%
38-41%
$0 Vol.
19%
41-44%
$251 Vol.
40%
44%+
$226 Vol.
34%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polling places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 36–42% range for the October 4 first round, with Datafolha at 39%, Quaest at 36%, CNT/MDA at 40.5%, and Nexus at 42%. These figures reflect a tightening contest against Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL, who trails by 4–10 points amid vote fragmentation to candidates such as Augusto Cury. Lula’s position benefits from incumbency and unified center-left support, while economic stability and the absence of major new scandals have kept his numbers steady near historical re-election benchmarks. Traders assign the highest probability to the 44%+ bucket, consistent with the upper end of recent surveys and the typical first-round performance of sitting presidents, though lower readings in some polls sustain meaningful probability on the 41–44% and 35–38% intervals. The October 4 vote and any final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the key variables.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$500End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polling places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 36–42% range for the October 4 first round, with Datafolha at 39%, Quaest at 36%, CNT/MDA at 40.5%, and Nexus at 42%. These figures reflect a tightening contest against Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL, who trails by 4–10 points amid vote fragmentation to candidates such as Augusto Cury. Lula’s position benefits from incumbency and unified center-left support, while economic stability and the absence of major new scandals have kept his numbers steady near historical re-election benchmarks. Traders assign the highest probability to the 44%+ bucket, consistent with the upper end of recent surveys and the typical first-round performance of sitting presidents, though lower readings in some polls sustain meaningful probability on the 41–44% and 35–38% intervals. The October 4 vote and any final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the key variables.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$500End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 polling places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 36–42% range for the October 4 first round, with Datafolha at 39%, Quaest at 36%, CNT/MDA at 40.5%, and Nexus at 42%. These figures reflect a tightening contest against Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL, who trails by 4–10 points amid vote fragmentation to candidates such as Augusto Cury. Lula’s position benefits from incumbency and unified center-left support, while economic stability and the absence of major new scandals have kept his numbers steady near historical re-election benchmarks. Traders assign the highest probability to the 44%+ bucket, consistent with the upper end of recent surveys and the typical first-round performance of sitting presidents, though lower readings in some polls sustain meaningful probability on the 41–44% and 35–38% intervals. The October 4 vote and any final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
43%
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
28%
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