**Market-implied odds favor 25°C (46.5%) as the most likely daily high for Incheon on September 13, 2026, followed by 26°C (24.5%) and 24°C (16.5%).** These probabilities reflect the latest consensus from numerical weather prediction models and official guidance, which show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with limited daytime heating. Current forecasts from sources including the Korea Meteorological Administration, GFS-based outputs, and commercial models consistently project a maximum temperature of 23–25°C under light westerly winds, high humidity (around 60–80%), and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-to-mid September climatology for the Seoul-Incheon region, where seasonal cooling has begun but extremes remain unlikely without strong synoptic forcing. Recent model runs through September 12 indicate stable atmospheric conditions with no significant warm advection or clear-sky development that would push highs above 26°C or allow cooling below 23°C. Minor variations across ensembles explain the spread toward 24–26°C outcomes, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 27°C+ or below 23°C) reflect residual uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around the 24–25°C range as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 13?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 13?
25°C 47%
26°C 25%
24°C 18%
23°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
18%
25°C
47%
26°C
25%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
1%
25°C 47%
26°C 25%
24°C 18%
23°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
19°C or below
$307 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$411 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$71 Vol.
1%
22°C
$136 Vol.
2%
23°C
$389 Vol.
5%
24°C
$849 Vol.
18%
25°C
$697 Vol.
47%
26°C
$521 Vol.
25%
27°C
$95 Vol.
5%
28°C
$85 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$173 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor 25°C (46.5%) as the most likely daily high for Incheon on September 13, 2026, followed by 26°C (24.5%) and 24°C (16.5%).** These probabilities reflect the latest consensus from numerical weather prediction models and official guidance, which show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with limited daytime heating.
Current forecasts from sources including the Korea Meteorological Administration, GFS-based outputs, and commercial models consistently project a maximum temperature of 23–25°C under light westerly winds, high humidity (around 60–80%), and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-to-mid September climatology for the Seoul-Incheon region, where seasonal cooling has begun but extremes remain unlikely without strong synoptic forcing.
Recent model runs through September 12 indicate stable atmospheric conditions with no significant warm advection or clear-sky development that would push highs above 26°C or allow cooling below 23°C. Minor variations across ensembles explain the spread toward 24–26°C outcomes, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 27°C+ or below 23°C) reflect residual uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around the 24–25°C range as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,732End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor 25°C (46.5%) as the most likely daily high for Incheon on September 13, 2026, followed by 26°C (24.5%) and 24°C (16.5%).** These probabilities reflect the latest consensus from numerical weather prediction models and official guidance, which show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with limited daytime heating.
Current forecasts from sources including the Korea Meteorological Administration, GFS-based outputs, and commercial models consistently project a maximum temperature of 23–25°C under light westerly winds, high humidity (around 60–80%), and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-to-mid September climatology for the Seoul-Incheon region, where seasonal cooling has begun but extremes remain unlikely without strong synoptic forcing.
Recent model runs through September 12 indicate stable atmospheric conditions with no significant warm advection or clear-sky development that would push highs above 26°C or allow cooling below 23°C. Minor variations across ensembles explain the spread toward 24–26°C outcomes, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 27°C+ or below 23°C) reflect residual uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around the 24–25°C range as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,732End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor 25°C (46.5%) as the most likely daily high for Incheon on September 13, 2026, followed by 26°C (24.5%) and 24°C (16.5%).** These probabilities reflect the latest consensus from numerical weather prediction models and official guidance, which show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with limited daytime heating. Current forecasts from sources including the Korea Meteorological Administration, GFS-based outputs, and commercial models consistently project a maximum temperature of 23–25°C under light westerly winds, high humidity (around 60–80%), and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-to-mid September climatology for the Seoul-Incheon region, where seasonal cooling has begun but extremes remain unlikely without strong synoptic forcing. Recent model runs through September 12 indicate stable atmospheric conditions with no significant warm advection or clear-sky development that would push highs above 26°C or allow cooling below 23°C. Minor variations across ensembles explain the spread toward 24–26°C outcomes, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 27°C+ or below 23°C) reflect residual uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble guidance around the 24–25°C range as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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