Current forecasts from regional models indicate overnight lows in Hong Kong stabilizing near 27°C on September 12 due to elevated dew points near 24–25°C, persistent easterly flow, and extensive cloud cover with scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. High humidity around 90% overnight and wind speeds of 10–15 km/h further suppress temperature drops, aligning with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for a 27°C minimum. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 29–31°C before gradual evening declines, consistent with late-summer climatology where September minima average near 24°C but warm anomalies from moisture and weak pressure gradients push values higher. Updated model runs through the day will refine exact resolution thresholds amid these stable atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
27°C 76%
25°C 11%
26°C 8%
24°C 3%
NEW
$45,775 Vol.
NEW
$45,775 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
3%
25°C
11%
26°C
8%
27°C
76%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 76%
25°C 11%
26°C 8%
24°C 3%
NEW
$45,775 Vol.
NEW
$45,775 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
22°C or below
$387 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$314 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,700 Vol.
3%
25°C
$2,024 Vol.
11%
26°C
$1,018 Vol.
8%
27°C
$3,749 Vol.
76%
28°C
$36,212 Vol.
1%
29°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$76 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$54 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from regional models indicate overnight lows in Hong Kong stabilizing near 27°C on September 12 due to elevated dew points near 24–25°C, persistent easterly flow, and extensive cloud cover with scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. High humidity around 90% overnight and wind speeds of 10–15 km/h further suppress temperature drops, aligning with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for a 27°C minimum. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 29–31°C before gradual evening declines, consistent with late-summer climatology where September minima average near 24°C but warm anomalies from moisture and weak pressure gradients push values higher. Updated model runs through the day will refine exact resolution thresholds amid these stable atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$45,775End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from regional models indicate overnight lows in Hong Kong stabilizing near 27°C on September 12 due to elevated dew points near 24–25°C, persistent easterly flow, and extensive cloud cover with scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. High humidity around 90% overnight and wind speeds of 10–15 km/h further suppress temperature drops, aligning with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for a 27°C minimum. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 29–31°C before gradual evening declines, consistent with late-summer climatology where September minima average near 24°C but warm anomalies from moisture and weak pressure gradients push values higher. Updated model runs through the day will refine exact resolution thresholds amid these stable atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,775End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from regional models indicate overnight lows in Hong Kong stabilizing near 27°C on September 12 due to elevated dew points near 24–25°C, persistent easterly flow, and extensive cloud cover with scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. High humidity around 90% overnight and wind speeds of 10–15 km/h further suppress temperature drops, aligning with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for a 27°C minimum. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 29–31°C before gradual evening declines, consistent with late-summer climatology where September minima average near 24°C but warm anomalies from moisture and weak pressure gradients push values higher. Updated model runs through the day will refine exact resolution thresholds amid these stable atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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