Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing low-pressure system over the South China Sea is sustaining cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity across Hong Kong, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and anchoring overnight minimums near 25–26°C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model output indicate partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms on September 13, producing dew points in the mid-20s and light easterly winds that further moderate temperature drops. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 24°C, but the current moisture-laden airmass and lack of clear skies push the distribution toward the upper end of that range. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 25–26°C because recent model runs show little divergence in boundary-layer conditions, with only modest upside risk for 27°C if daytime heating lingers longer or downside for 24°C if heavier overnight rain enhances evaporative cooling. Updated HKO forecasts and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 13?
26°C 36%
25°C 33%
24°C 19%
27°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
<1%
24°C
19%
25°C
33%
26°C
36%
27°C
14%
28°C
4%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 36%
25°C 33%
24°C 19%
27°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$71 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$314 Vol.
19%
25°C
$365 Vol.
33%
26°C
$413 Vol.
36%
27°C
$398 Vol.
14%
28°C
$113 Vol.
4%
29°C
$73 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$77 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$77 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$77 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing low-pressure system over the South China Sea is sustaining cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity across Hong Kong, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and anchoring overnight minimums near 25–26°C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model output indicate partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms on September 13, producing dew points in the mid-20s and light easterly winds that further moderate temperature drops. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 24°C, but the current moisture-laden airmass and lack of clear skies push the distribution toward the upper end of that range. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 25–26°C because recent model runs show little divergence in boundary-layer conditions, with only modest upside risk for 27°C if daytime heating lingers longer or downside for 24°C if heavier overnight rain enhances evaporative cooling. Updated HKO forecasts and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,988End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing low-pressure system over the South China Sea is sustaining cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity across Hong Kong, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and anchoring overnight minimums near 25–26°C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model output indicate partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms on September 13, producing dew points in the mid-20s and light easterly winds that further moderate temperature drops. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 24°C, but the current moisture-laden airmass and lack of clear skies push the distribution toward the upper end of that range. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 25–26°C because recent model runs show little divergence in boundary-layer conditions, with only modest upside risk for 27°C if daytime heating lingers longer or downside for 24°C if heavier overnight rain enhances evaporative cooling. Updated HKO forecasts and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,988End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeast monsoon flow combined with a developing low-pressure system over the South China Sea is sustaining cloud cover, showers, and elevated humidity across Hong Kong, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and anchoring overnight minimums near 25–26°C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model output indicate partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms on September 13, producing dew points in the mid-20s and light easterly winds that further moderate temperature drops. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 24°C, but the current moisture-laden airmass and lack of clear skies push the distribution toward the upper end of that range. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 25–26°C because recent model runs show little divergence in boundary-layer conditions, with only modest upside risk for 27°C if daytime heating lingers longer or downside for 24°C if heavier overnight rain enhances evaporative cooling. Updated HKO forecasts and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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