**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, with 99.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory forecast and supporting numerical weather prediction models projecting a daytime high of 32°C under northeast monsoon flow, which maintains north-northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s, limits cloud cover, and supports strong solar heating. Recent observations show morning temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C toward peak values consistent with seasonal September norms, with relative humidity dropping below 70% during heating hours. The market-implied odds align closely with the official 25–32°C diurnal range. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms that reduce insolation, or shifts in wind patterns that enhance mixing and suppress the peak; however, current model consensus and late-morning trends indicate low likelihood of deviation sufficient to alter the recorded maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
32°C 99.8%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$107,924 Vol.
$107,924 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99.8%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$107,924 Vol.
$107,924 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
26°C or below
$265 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$228 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$19,467 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$11,248 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$11,935 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$18,550 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$15,938 Vol.
100%
33°C
$26,126 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,661 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, with 99.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory forecast and supporting numerical weather prediction models projecting a daytime high of 32°C under northeast monsoon flow, which maintains north-northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s, limits cloud cover, and supports strong solar heating. Recent observations show morning temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C toward peak values consistent with seasonal September norms, with relative humidity dropping below 70% during heating hours. The market-implied odds align closely with the official 25–32°C diurnal range.
Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms that reduce insolation, or shifts in wind patterns that enhance mixing and suppress the peak; however, current model consensus and late-morning trends indicate low likelihood of deviation sufficient to alter the recorded maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$107,924End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, with 99.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory forecast and supporting numerical weather prediction models projecting a daytime high of 32°C under northeast monsoon flow, which maintains north-northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s, limits cloud cover, and supports strong solar heating. Recent observations show morning temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C toward peak values consistent with seasonal September norms, with relative humidity dropping below 70% during heating hours. The market-implied odds align closely with the official 25–32°C diurnal range.
Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms that reduce insolation, or shifts in wind patterns that enhance mixing and suppress the peak; however, current model consensus and late-morning trends indicate low likelihood of deviation sufficient to alter the recorded maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$107,924End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 32°C daily maximum for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, with 99.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory forecast and supporting numerical weather prediction models projecting a daytime high of 32°C under northeast monsoon flow, which maintains north-northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s, limits cloud cover, and supports strong solar heating. Recent observations show morning temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C toward peak values consistent with seasonal September norms, with relative humidity dropping below 70% during heating hours. The market-implied odds align closely with the official 25–32°C diurnal range. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms that reduce insolation, or shifts in wind patterns that enhance mixing and suppress the peak; however, current model consensus and late-morning trends indicate low likelihood of deviation sufficient to alter the recorded maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions