Forecast models and Hong Kong Observatory guidance point to a daily maximum of 31–32 °C on September 12 under a persistent northeast monsoon that advects slightly cooler, drier air while allowing sunny periods before afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. This range aligns closely with the September climatological normal of roughly 30–31 °C and explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (47 %) and 31 °C (36.5 %). Moderate humidity and increasing cloud cover may cap peak readings near the upper end of the forecast envelope, while any delay in convective activity could permit a brief push toward 33 °C; conversely, earlier or heavier showers would favor 30 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
32°C 49%
31°C 43%
30°C 5%
33°C 5%
NEW
$29,798 Vol.
NEW
$29,798 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
43%
32°C
49%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
32°C 49%
31°C 43%
30°C 5%
33°C 5%
NEW
$29,798 Vol.
NEW
$29,798 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
25°C or below
$364 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$598 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,170 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,995 Vol.
2%
30°C
$5,339 Vol.
5%
31°C
$4,083 Vol.
43%
32°C
$4,262 Vol.
49%
33°C
$4,488 Vol.
5%
34°C
$1,175 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models and Hong Kong Observatory guidance point to a daily maximum of 31–32 °C on September 12 under a persistent northeast monsoon that advects slightly cooler, drier air while allowing sunny periods before afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. This range aligns closely with the September climatological normal of roughly 30–31 °C and explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (47 %) and 31 °C (36.5 %). Moderate humidity and increasing cloud cover may cap peak readings near the upper end of the forecast envelope, while any delay in convective activity could permit a brief push toward 33 °C; conversely, earlier or heavier showers would favor 30 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$29,798End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models and Hong Kong Observatory guidance point to a daily maximum of 31–32 °C on September 12 under a persistent northeast monsoon that advects slightly cooler, drier air while allowing sunny periods before afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. This range aligns closely with the September climatological normal of roughly 30–31 °C and explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (47 %) and 31 °C (36.5 %). Moderate humidity and increasing cloud cover may cap peak readings near the upper end of the forecast envelope, while any delay in convective activity could permit a brief push toward 33 °C; conversely, earlier or heavier showers would favor 30 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,798End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models and Hong Kong Observatory guidance point to a daily maximum of 31–32 °C on September 12 under a persistent northeast monsoon that advects slightly cooler, drier air while allowing sunny periods before afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. This range aligns closely with the September climatological normal of roughly 30–31 °C and explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (47 %) and 31 °C (36.5 %). Moderate humidity and increasing cloud cover may cap peak readings near the upper end of the forecast envelope, while any delay in convective activity could permit a brief push toward 33 °C; conversely, earlier or heavier showers would favor 30 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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