**Clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure pattern are positioning 31–33°C as the dominant range for Madrid’s daily maximum on September 12, 2026, with market-implied odds heavily favoring 32°C (78%).** Forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and other models show afternoon peaks reaching 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under mostly sunny conditions, with minimal cloud cover and light easterly or variable winds that permit strong daytime heating. This aligns with the current warm spell, as recent days have featured similar clear, dry weather and above-average temperatures for mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate. Official monitoring and model consensus place the most likely maximum near or slightly above the long-term average high of ~27°C, but well below historical extremes for the date (34.6°C). Traders appear to be weighting the latest model runs and observed trends, which show little day-to-day variability and no significant cooling influences, supporting the strong consensus around 32°C while leaving modest room for 33°C if heating exceeds expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
32°C 78%
33°C 15%
31°C 8%
30°C <1%
NEW
$25,072 Vol.
NEW
$25,072 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
8%
32°C
78%
33°C
15%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 78%
33°C 15%
31°C 8%
30°C <1%
NEW
$25,072 Vol.
NEW
$25,072 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
27°C or below
$692 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$410 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$417 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$854 Vol.
1%
31°C
$6,810 Vol.
8%
32°C
$7,583 Vol.
78%
33°C
$6,413 Vol.
15%
34°C
$1,038 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$264 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$445 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure pattern are positioning 31–33°C as the dominant range for Madrid’s daily maximum on September 12, 2026, with market-implied odds heavily favoring 32°C (78%).**
Forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and other models show afternoon peaks reaching 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under mostly sunny conditions, with minimal cloud cover and light easterly or variable winds that permit strong daytime heating. This aligns with the current warm spell, as recent days have featured similar clear, dry weather and above-average temperatures for mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate.
Official monitoring and model consensus place the most likely maximum near or slightly above the long-term average high of ~27°C, but well below historical extremes for the date (34.6°C). Traders appear to be weighting the latest model runs and observed trends, which show little day-to-day variability and no significant cooling influences, supporting the strong consensus around 32°C while leaving modest room for 33°C if heating exceeds expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$25,072End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure pattern are positioning 31–33°C as the dominant range for Madrid’s daily maximum on September 12, 2026, with market-implied odds heavily favoring 32°C (78%).**
Forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and other models show afternoon peaks reaching 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under mostly sunny conditions, with minimal cloud cover and light easterly or variable winds that permit strong daytime heating. This aligns with the current warm spell, as recent days have featured similar clear, dry weather and above-average temperatures for mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate.
Official monitoring and model consensus place the most likely maximum near or slightly above the long-term average high of ~27°C, but well below historical extremes for the date (34.6°C). Traders appear to be weighting the latest model runs and observed trends, which show little day-to-day variability and no significant cooling influences, supporting the strong consensus around 32°C while leaving modest room for 33°C if heating exceeds expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,072End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure pattern are positioning 31–33°C as the dominant range for Madrid’s daily maximum on September 12, 2026, with market-implied odds heavily favoring 32°C (78%).** Forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and other models show afternoon peaks reaching 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under mostly sunny conditions, with minimal cloud cover and light easterly or variable winds that permit strong daytime heating. This aligns with the current warm spell, as recent days have featured similar clear, dry weather and above-average temperatures for mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate. Official monitoring and model consensus place the most likely maximum near or slightly above the long-term average high of ~27°C, but well below historical extremes for the date (34.6°C). Traders appear to be weighting the latest model runs and observed trends, which show little day-to-day variability and no significant cooling influences, supporting the strong consensus around 32°C while leaving modest room for 33°C if heating exceeds expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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