Clear skies and light northeasterly winds are supporting radiative cooling overnight into September 13, positioning the minimum temperature near the historical average low of 15.9°C for the date. Official model guidance from sources such as GFS shows overnight lows in the 16–18°C range under stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points in the single digits Celsius, limiting moisture retention. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 15°C or below aligns with this baseline expectation, while slightly warmer outcomes around 16–17°C capture residual uncertainty from any minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. No significant frontal passages or moisture surges are forecast through the period, keeping probabilities anchored to typical early-autumn climatology for central Spain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 13?
15°C or below 56%
16°C 32%
25°C or higher 28%
19°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
56%
16°C
32%
17°C
23%
18°C
19%
19°C
27%
20°C
15%
21°C
13%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
28%
15°C or below 56%
16°C 32%
25°C or higher 28%
19°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
56%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light northeasterly winds are supporting radiative cooling overnight into September 13, positioning the minimum temperature near the historical average low of 15.9°C for the date. Official model guidance from sources such as GFS shows overnight lows in the 16–18°C range under stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points in the single digits Celsius, limiting moisture retention. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 15°C or below aligns with this baseline expectation, while slightly warmer outcomes around 16–17°C capture residual uncertainty from any minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. No significant frontal passages or moisture surges are forecast through the period, keeping probabilities anchored to typical early-autumn climatology for central Spain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light northeasterly winds are supporting radiative cooling overnight into September 13, positioning the minimum temperature near the historical average low of 15.9°C for the date. Official model guidance from sources such as GFS shows overnight lows in the 16–18°C range under stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points in the single digits Celsius, limiting moisture retention. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 15°C or below aligns with this baseline expectation, while slightly warmer outcomes around 16–17°C capture residual uncertainty from any minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. No significant frontal passages or moisture surges are forecast through the period, keeping probabilities anchored to typical early-autumn climatology for central Spain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and light northeasterly winds are supporting radiative cooling overnight into September 13, positioning the minimum temperature near the historical average low of 15.9°C for the date. Official model guidance from sources such as GFS shows overnight lows in the 16–18°C range under stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and dew points in the single digits Celsius, limiting moisture retention. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 15°C or below aligns with this baseline expectation, while slightly warmer outcomes around 16–17°C capture residual uncertainty from any minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. No significant frontal passages or moisture surges are forecast through the period, keeping probabilities anchored to typical early-autumn climatology for central Spain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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