Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain are driving the current market-implied odds for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 12, with AEMET and GFS/ECMWF guidance pointing to light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover that will promote radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus currently projects a minimum near 15–17 °C, consistent with the long-term September average of 16 °C, yet the 50 % probability attached to 11 °C or below reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point values that could allow brief dips if winds calm further. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, and precipitation risk remains near zero, leaving traders focused on the next model runs for any adjustments ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
11°C or below 100%
13°C 40%
17°C 40%
18°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
100%
12°C
19%
13°C
40%
14°C
22%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
11°C or below 100%
13°C 40%
17°C 40%
18°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$4 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain are driving the current market-implied odds for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 12, with AEMET and GFS/ECMWF guidance pointing to light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover that will promote radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus currently projects a minimum near 15–17 °C, consistent with the long-term September average of 16 °C, yet the 50 % probability attached to 11 °C or below reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point values that could allow brief dips if winds calm further. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, and precipitation risk remains near zero, leaving traders focused on the next model runs for any adjustments ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain are driving the current market-implied odds for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 12, with AEMET and GFS/ECMWF guidance pointing to light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover that will promote radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus currently projects a minimum near 15–17 °C, consistent with the long-term September average of 16 °C, yet the 50 % probability attached to 11 °C or below reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point values that could allow brief dips if winds calm further. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, and precipitation risk remains near zero, leaving traders focused on the next model runs for any adjustments ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain are driving the current market-implied odds for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 12, with AEMET and GFS/ECMWF guidance pointing to light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover that will promote radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus currently projects a minimum near 15–17 °C, consistent with the long-term September average of 16 °C, yet the 50 % probability attached to 11 °C or below reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point values that could allow brief dips if winds calm further. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, and precipitation risk remains near zero, leaving traders focused on the next model runs for any adjustments ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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