**Official forecasts from Environment Canada indicate a daytime high near 25°C on September 13 with a 30% chance of showers, followed by an overnight low of 10°C under partly cloudy skies and a 40% shower risk.** This places the expected daily minimum squarely between the market’s two leading outcomes (19°C or higher at 45.0% implied probability versus 9°C or below at 42.5%), creating the tight contest observed in trader pricing. Daytime temperatures are projected to reach 24–26°C across most guidance, consistent with late-summer norms, while the overnight minimum hinges on cloud cover, wind speed, and any showers that suppress radiational cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of roughly 14°C for the date, so current model consensus sits slightly below average but remains within the typical range. The narrow spread between 15–18°C outcomes (each 20–23%) reflects residual uncertainty in how much cooling occurs if skies clear versus remain overcast. Updated Environment Canada guidance and new model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen the minimum-temperature outlook and drive further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 13?
9°C or below 75%
19°C or higher 42%
11°C 39%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
9°C or below
75%
10°C
38%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
24%
16°C
24%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C or higher
42%
9°C or below 75%
19°C or higher 42%
11°C 39%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
75%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Environment Canada indicate a daytime high near 25°C on September 13 with a 30% chance of showers, followed by an overnight low of 10°C under partly cloudy skies and a 40% shower risk.** This places the expected daily minimum squarely between the market’s two leading outcomes (19°C or higher at 45.0% implied probability versus 9°C or below at 42.5%), creating the tight contest observed in trader pricing.
Daytime temperatures are projected to reach 24–26°C across most guidance, consistent with late-summer norms, while the overnight minimum hinges on cloud cover, wind speed, and any showers that suppress radiational cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of roughly 14°C for the date, so current model consensus sits slightly below average but remains within the typical range.
The narrow spread between 15–18°C outcomes (each 20–23%) reflects residual uncertainty in how much cooling occurs if skies clear versus remain overcast. Updated Environment Canada guidance and new model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen the minimum-temperature outlook and drive further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Environment Canada indicate a daytime high near 25°C on September 13 with a 30% chance of showers, followed by an overnight low of 10°C under partly cloudy skies and a 40% shower risk.** This places the expected daily minimum squarely between the market’s two leading outcomes (19°C or higher at 45.0% implied probability versus 9°C or below at 42.5%), creating the tight contest observed in trader pricing.
Daytime temperatures are projected to reach 24–26°C across most guidance, consistent with late-summer norms, while the overnight minimum hinges on cloud cover, wind speed, and any showers that suppress radiational cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of roughly 14°C for the date, so current model consensus sits slightly below average but remains within the typical range.
The narrow spread between 15–18°C outcomes (each 20–23%) reflects residual uncertainty in how much cooling occurs if skies clear versus remain overcast. Updated Environment Canada guidance and new model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen the minimum-temperature outlook and drive further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Environment Canada indicate a daytime high near 25°C on September 13 with a 30% chance of showers, followed by an overnight low of 10°C under partly cloudy skies and a 40% shower risk.** This places the expected daily minimum squarely between the market’s two leading outcomes (19°C or higher at 45.0% implied probability versus 9°C or below at 42.5%), creating the tight contest observed in trader pricing. Daytime temperatures are projected to reach 24–26°C across most guidance, consistent with late-summer norms, while the overnight minimum hinges on cloud cover, wind speed, and any showers that suppress radiational cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of roughly 14°C for the date, so current model consensus sits slightly below average but remains within the typical range. The narrow spread between 15–18°C outcomes (each 20–23%) reflects residual uncertainty in how much cooling occurs if skies clear versus remain overcast. Updated Environment Canada guidance and new model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen the minimum-temperature outlook and drive further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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