Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for San Francisco on September 13 indicate overnight lows in the upper 50s °F, driven by persistent marine-layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56 °F and recent observed minima near 57–61 °F, positioning the 58–59 °F and 60–61 °F bins as the dominant market outcomes. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no strong signals for anomalous cooling or warming that would favor extremes below 56 °F or above 62 °F. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 13?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 13?
49°F or below 86%
58-59°F 49%
68°F or higher 45%
60-61°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
49°F or below
86%
50-51°F
5%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
18%
56-57°F
13%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
33%
62-63°F
33%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
5%
68°F or higher
45%
49°F or below 86%
58-59°F 49%
68°F or higher 45%
60-61°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
86%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
5%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
18%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
18%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
13%
58-59°F
$32 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
33%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
33%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
8%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
5%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for San Francisco on September 13 indicate overnight lows in the upper 50s °F, driven by persistent marine-layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56 °F and recent observed minima near 57–61 °F, positioning the 58–59 °F and 60–61 °F bins as the dominant market outcomes. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no strong signals for anomalous cooling or warming that would favor extremes below 56 °F or above 62 °F. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for San Francisco on September 13 indicate overnight lows in the upper 50s °F, driven by persistent marine-layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56 °F and recent observed minima near 57–61 °F, positioning the 58–59 °F and 60–61 °F bins as the dominant market outcomes. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no strong signals for anomalous cooling or warming that would favor extremes below 56 °F or above 62 °F. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for San Francisco on September 13 indicate overnight lows in the upper 50s °F, driven by persistent marine-layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56 °F and recent observed minima near 57–61 °F, positioning the 58–59 °F and 60–61 °F bins as the dominant market outcomes. Model consensus shows limited spread, with no strong signals for anomalous cooling or warming that would favor extremes below 56 °F or above 62 °F. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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