Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local observations indicate overnight lows near 58°F for San Francisco on September 12, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and radiative cooling under a weakening marine layer. These conditions favor the market's leading 60–61°F bin at 47% implied probability, with 58–59°F close behind, as typical September nocturnal temperatures average 56°F and recent highs in the upper 60s to low 70s have allowed efficient heat loss. Stronger onshore flow or increased cloud cover could push readings lower toward the 49°F-or-below outcome, while any unexpected warming would support the 68°F-or-higher share. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 12?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 12?
60-61°F 58%
49°F or below 33%
68°F or higher 33%
58-59°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
49°F or below
33%
50-51°F
15%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
28%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
33%
60-61°F
51%
62-63°F
32%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
16%
68°F or higher
33%
60-61°F 58%
49°F or below 33%
68°F or higher 33%
58-59°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
33%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
15%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
15%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
28%
56-57°F
$76 Vol.
8%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
33%
60-61°F
$88 Vol.
51%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
32%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
17%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
16%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local observations indicate overnight lows near 58°F for San Francisco on September 12, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and radiative cooling under a weakening marine layer. These conditions favor the market's leading 60–61°F bin at 47% implied probability, with 58–59°F close behind, as typical September nocturnal temperatures average 56°F and recent highs in the upper 60s to low 70s have allowed efficient heat loss. Stronger onshore flow or increased cloud cover could push readings lower toward the 49°F-or-below outcome, while any unexpected warming would support the 68°F-or-higher share. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$164End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local observations indicate overnight lows near 58°F for San Francisco on September 12, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and radiative cooling under a weakening marine layer. These conditions favor the market's leading 60–61°F bin at 47% implied probability, with 58–59°F close behind, as typical September nocturnal temperatures average 56°F and recent highs in the upper 60s to low 70s have allowed efficient heat loss. Stronger onshore flow or increased cloud cover could push readings lower toward the 49°F-or-below outcome, while any unexpected warming would support the 68°F-or-higher share. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$164End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local observations indicate overnight lows near 58°F for San Francisco on September 12, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and radiative cooling under a weakening marine layer. These conditions favor the market's leading 60–61°F bin at 47% implied probability, with 58–59°F close behind, as typical September nocturnal temperatures average 56°F and recent highs in the upper 60s to low 70s have allowed efficient heat loss. Stronger onshore flow or increased cloud cover could push readings lower toward the 49°F-or-below outcome, while any unexpected warming would support the 68°F-or-higher share. Updated National Weather Service guidance and evening model runs will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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