Trader sentiment reflects significant uncertainty around San Francisco's September 11 low, with 58–59°F and 60–61°F outcomes nearly tied near 52% implied probability each. The primary drivers are the strength and timing of the marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific, which typically keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s during early fall. Recent model runs showed minor differences in predicted wind speeds and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by 1–2°F, while historical climatology indicates September lows average near 57°F at official stations. Official National Weather Service observations from nearby airports will determine resolution, with any late-evening clearing or stronger inversion potentially favoring the higher bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 11?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 11?
54-55°F 7.0%
52-53°F 4.9%
56-57°F 3%
51°F or below <1%
$909 Vol.
$909 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
51°F or below
<1%
52-53°F
5%
54-55°F
7%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
-
60-61°F
-
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
54-55°F 7.0%
52-53°F 4.9%
56-57°F 3%
51°F or below <1%
$909 Vol.
$909 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
51°F or below
$60 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$42 Vol.
5%
54-55°F
$77 Vol.
7%
56-57°F
$22 Vol.
3%
58-59°F
$60 Vol.
-
60-61°F
$167 Vol.
-
62-63°F
$396 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$20 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$30 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
70°F or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment reflects significant uncertainty around San Francisco's September 11 low, with 58–59°F and 60–61°F outcomes nearly tied near 52% implied probability each. The primary drivers are the strength and timing of the marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific, which typically keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s during early fall. Recent model runs showed minor differences in predicted wind speeds and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by 1–2°F, while historical climatology indicates September lows average near 57°F at official stations. Official National Weather Service observations from nearby airports will determine resolution, with any late-evening clearing or stronger inversion potentially favoring the higher bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$909End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment reflects significant uncertainty around San Francisco's September 11 low, with 58–59°F and 60–61°F outcomes nearly tied near 52% implied probability each. The primary drivers are the strength and timing of the marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific, which typically keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s during early fall. Recent model runs showed minor differences in predicted wind speeds and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by 1–2°F, while historical climatology indicates September lows average near 57°F at official stations. Official National Weather Service observations from nearby airports will determine resolution, with any late-evening clearing or stronger inversion potentially favoring the higher bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$909End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects significant uncertainty around San Francisco's September 11 low, with 58–59°F and 60–61°F outcomes nearly tied near 52% implied probability each. The primary drivers are the strength and timing of the marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific, which typically keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s during early fall. Recent model runs showed minor differences in predicted wind speeds and cloud cover that could shift the minimum by 1–2°F, while historical climatology indicates September lows average near 57°F at official stations. Official National Weather Service observations from nearby airports will determine resolution, with any late-evening clearing or stronger inversion potentially favoring the higher bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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