Current forecasts from official and model sources indicate a mild September 12 in San Francisco, with a high likely in the upper 60s to low 70s amid persistent onshore westerly flow and marine layer influence typical for the season. This consensus underpins the closely matched 41% and 34% implied probabilities for the 68-69°F and 70-71°F bins, reflecting minor differences in how models resolve afternoon warming under partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Historical averages near 71°F provide context, but recent observational trends and the absence of offshore wind events or anomalous ridging keep extremes unlikely, with traders weighting the most probable resolution windows. Updated National Weather Service guidance later today will further refine these probabilities ahead of final readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 12?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 12?
68-69°F 42%
70-71°F 35%
66-67°F 12%
72-73°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
12%
68-69°F
42%
70-71°F
35%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 42%
70-71°F 35%
66-67°F 12%
72-73°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
$353 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$177 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$13 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$145 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$172 Vol.
12%
68-69°F
$1,433 Vol.
42%
70-71°F
$770 Vol.
35%
72-73°F
$526 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$273 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$226 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$921 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from official and model sources indicate a mild September 12 in San Francisco, with a high likely in the upper 60s to low 70s amid persistent onshore westerly flow and marine layer influence typical for the season. This consensus underpins the closely matched 41% and 34% implied probabilities for the 68-69°F and 70-71°F bins, reflecting minor differences in how models resolve afternoon warming under partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Historical averages near 71°F provide context, but recent observational trends and the absence of offshore wind events or anomalous ridging keep extremes unlikely, with traders weighting the most probable resolution windows. Updated National Weather Service guidance later today will further refine these probabilities ahead of final readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,009End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from official and model sources indicate a mild September 12 in San Francisco, with a high likely in the upper 60s to low 70s amid persistent onshore westerly flow and marine layer influence typical for the season. This consensus underpins the closely matched 41% and 34% implied probabilities for the 68-69°F and 70-71°F bins, reflecting minor differences in how models resolve afternoon warming under partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Historical averages near 71°F provide context, but recent observational trends and the absence of offshore wind events or anomalous ridging keep extremes unlikely, with traders weighting the most probable resolution windows. Updated National Weather Service guidance later today will further refine these probabilities ahead of final readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,009End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from official and model sources indicate a mild September 12 in San Francisco, with a high likely in the upper 60s to low 70s amid persistent onshore westerly flow and marine layer influence typical for the season. This consensus underpins the closely matched 41% and 34% implied probabilities for the 68-69°F and 70-71°F bins, reflecting minor differences in how models resolve afternoon warming under partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Historical averages near 71°F provide context, but recent observational trends and the absence of offshore wind events or anomalous ridging keep extremes unlikely, with traders weighting the most probable resolution windows. Updated National Weather Service guidance later today will further refine these probabilities ahead of final readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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