**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions 15°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 13 high temperature, with 16°C and 14°C as plausible alternatives.** Early spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere typically feature September daily maxima near 12–13°C, yet current model guidance indicates a modest positive anomaly driven by mostly clear skies, light easterly to southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official and private forecasts converge on a peak of 15°C (or 59°F) during the early afternoon under sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with low precipitation risk supporting the elevated reading. The 20.5% market-implied probability on 16°C reflects residual model spread and the potential for slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind if high pressure builds more firmly, while the 13% chance on 14°C accounts for any late timing shift in the diurnal peak or minor marine influence from the nearby Cook Strait. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 13?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 13?
15°C 66%
16°C 17%
14°C 14%
13°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
14%
15°C
66%
16°C
17%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 66%
16°C 17%
14°C 14%
13°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
10°C or below
$158 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$284 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$470 Vol.
3%
14°C
$1,409 Vol.
14%
15°C
$2,240 Vol.
66%
16°C
$2,466 Vol.
17%
17°C
$492 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$48 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$549 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$213 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions 15°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 13 high temperature, with 16°C and 14°C as plausible alternatives.** Early spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere typically feature September daily maxima near 12–13°C, yet current model guidance indicates a modest positive anomaly driven by mostly clear skies, light easterly to southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official and private forecasts converge on a peak of 15°C (or 59°F) during the early afternoon under sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with low precipitation risk supporting the elevated reading. The 20.5% market-implied probability on 16°C reflects residual model spread and the potential for slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind if high pressure builds more firmly, while the 13% chance on 14°C accounts for any late timing shift in the diurnal peak or minor marine influence from the nearby Cook Strait. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,485End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions 15°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 13 high temperature, with 16°C and 14°C as plausible alternatives.** Early spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere typically feature September daily maxima near 12–13°C, yet current model guidance indicates a modest positive anomaly driven by mostly clear skies, light easterly to southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official and private forecasts converge on a peak of 15°C (or 59°F) during the early afternoon under sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with low precipitation risk supporting the elevated reading. The 20.5% market-implied probability on 16°C reflects residual model spread and the potential for slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind if high pressure builds more firmly, while the 13% chance on 14°C accounts for any late timing shift in the diurnal peak or minor marine influence from the nearby Cook Strait. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,485End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions 15°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 13 high temperature, with 16°C and 14°C as plausible alternatives.** Early spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere typically feature September daily maxima near 12–13°C, yet current model guidance indicates a modest positive anomaly driven by mostly clear skies, light easterly to southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that allows stronger daytime heating. Official and private forecasts converge on a peak of 15°C (or 59°F) during the early afternoon under sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with low precipitation risk supporting the elevated reading. The 20.5% market-implied probability on 16°C reflects residual model spread and the potential for slightly stronger insolation or reduced wind if high pressure builds more firmly, while the 13% chance on 14°C accounts for any late timing shift in the diurnal peak or minor marine influence from the nearby Cook Strait. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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