Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City’s overnight low on September 12 will likely settle near 13–14 °C, driven by widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds associated with a lingering low-pressure system during the peak rainy season. High elevation and elevated humidity limit radiational cooling, while variable rainfall timing creates the main uncertainty: earlier or heavier precipitation could suppress the minimum toward 12–13 °C, whereas partial clearing might allow brief drops closer to 15 °C. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched probabilities across the 13–18 °C range plus the elevated share for 18 °C or higher, captures this narrow but genuine spread in model guidance and the influence of short-term mesoscale features on the final observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 12?
18°C or higher 74%
15°C 44%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
2%
9°C
12%
10°C
12%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
22%
14°C
29%
15°C
24%
16°C
22%
17°C
39%
18°C or higher
74%
18°C or higher 74%
15°C 44%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
12%
10°C
$0 Vol.
12%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$3 Vol.
29%
15°C
$7 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City’s overnight low on September 12 will likely settle near 13–14 °C, driven by widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds associated with a lingering low-pressure system during the peak rainy season. High elevation and elevated humidity limit radiational cooling, while variable rainfall timing creates the main uncertainty: earlier or heavier precipitation could suppress the minimum toward 12–13 °C, whereas partial clearing might allow brief drops closer to 15 °C. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched probabilities across the 13–18 °C range plus the elevated share for 18 °C or higher, captures this narrow but genuine spread in model guidance and the influence of short-term mesoscale features on the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City’s overnight low on September 12 will likely settle near 13–14 °C, driven by widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds associated with a lingering low-pressure system during the peak rainy season. High elevation and elevated humidity limit radiational cooling, while variable rainfall timing creates the main uncertainty: earlier or heavier precipitation could suppress the minimum toward 12–13 °C, whereas partial clearing might allow brief drops closer to 15 °C. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched probabilities across the 13–18 °C range plus the elevated share for 18 °C or higher, captures this narrow but genuine spread in model guidance and the influence of short-term mesoscale features on the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City’s overnight low on September 12 will likely settle near 13–14 °C, driven by widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds associated with a lingering low-pressure system during the peak rainy season. High elevation and elevated humidity limit radiational cooling, while variable rainfall timing creates the main uncertainty: earlier or heavier precipitation could suppress the minimum toward 12–13 °C, whereas partial clearing might allow brief drops closer to 15 °C. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched probabilities across the 13–18 °C range plus the elevated share for 18 °C or higher, captures this narrow but genuine spread in model guidance and the influence of short-term mesoscale features on the final observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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