Recent meteorological data from NOAA stations in New York City show the September 11 overnight low settling near the 70–73°F threshold, which underpins the closely matched market-implied odds of 46% for 70–71°F and 40.5% for 72–73°F. A weak high-pressure ridge suppressed stronger cooling while residual warmth from the prior day’s highs near 80°F limited radiative heat loss, with urban heat island effects adding 1–2°F compared to surrounding rural areas. Official minimums from Central Park versus LaGuardia Airport diverged slightly due to local wind patterns and measurement timing, creating the narrow spread. Historical late-summer baselines place typical NYC lows in this period around 65–70°F, but persistent southerly flow kept readings elevated and left little room for the lower-probability bins below 69°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 11?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 11?
70-71°F 70%
72-73°F 41%
66-67°F 13%
68-69°F 9%
$6,160 Vol.
$6,160 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
47%
72-73°F
41%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 70%
72-73°F 41%
66-67°F 13%
68-69°F 9%
$6,160 Vol.
$6,160 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
61°F or below
$257 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$81 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$228 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$281 Vol.
14%
68-69°F
$704 Vol.
9%
70-71°F
$2,322 Vol.
47%
72-73°F
$992 Vol.
41%
74-75°F
$714 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$364 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$126 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$91 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological data from NOAA stations in New York City show the September 11 overnight low settling near the 70–73°F threshold, which underpins the closely matched market-implied odds of 46% for 70–71°F and 40.5% for 72–73°F. A weak high-pressure ridge suppressed stronger cooling while residual warmth from the prior day’s highs near 80°F limited radiative heat loss, with urban heat island effects adding 1–2°F compared to surrounding rural areas. Official minimums from Central Park versus LaGuardia Airport diverged slightly due to local wind patterns and measurement timing, creating the narrow spread. Historical late-summer baselines place typical NYC lows in this period around 65–70°F, but persistent southerly flow kept readings elevated and left little room for the lower-probability bins below 69°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,160End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological data from NOAA stations in New York City show the September 11 overnight low settling near the 70–73°F threshold, which underpins the closely matched market-implied odds of 46% for 70–71°F and 40.5% for 72–73°F. A weak high-pressure ridge suppressed stronger cooling while residual warmth from the prior day’s highs near 80°F limited radiative heat loss, with urban heat island effects adding 1–2°F compared to surrounding rural areas. Official minimums from Central Park versus LaGuardia Airport diverged slightly due to local wind patterns and measurement timing, creating the narrow spread. Historical late-summer baselines place typical NYC lows in this period around 65–70°F, but persistent southerly flow kept readings elevated and left little room for the lower-probability bins below 69°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,160End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological data from NOAA stations in New York City show the September 11 overnight low settling near the 70–73°F threshold, which underpins the closely matched market-implied odds of 46% for 70–71°F and 40.5% for 72–73°F. A weak high-pressure ridge suppressed stronger cooling while residual warmth from the prior day’s highs near 80°F limited radiative heat loss, with urban heat island effects adding 1–2°F compared to surrounding rural areas. Official minimums from Central Park versus LaGuardia Airport diverged slightly due to local wind patterns and measurement timing, creating the narrow spread. Historical late-summer baselines place typical NYC lows in this period around 65–70°F, but persistent southerly flow kept readings elevated and left little room for the lower-probability bins below 69°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions