**The dominant market positioning on 52-53°F as Seattle’s September 11, 2026, low stems from official observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and nearby stations, which recorded a minimum near 53°F under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds.** This aligns with the seasonal average low of 53.9°F for the date and recent model consensus showing minimal overnight cooling amid stable high pressure. Traders assign over 90% implied probability to this narrow band because preliminary climatological summaries and hourly METAR data converged on values in the low-to-mid 50s, with little model spread or station discrepancy. A realistic challenge would require an upward revision in the final National Weather Service summary or confirmation that a different official site (such as downtown) measured 54°F or higher, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary data are released.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on September 11?
50-51°F 96%
52-53°F 95%
48-49°F 94.1%
47°F or below 14%
$1,198 Vol.
$1,198 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
47°F or below
14%
48-49°F
94%
50-51°F
96%
52-53°F
95%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
50-51°F 96%
52-53°F 95%
48-49°F 94.1%
47°F or below 14%
$1,198 Vol.
$1,198 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
14%
48-49°F
$80 Vol.
94%
50-51°F
$15 Vol.
96%
52-53°F
$135 Vol.
95%
54-55°F
$424 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$283 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$20 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$60 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$60 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$60 Vol.
<1%
66°F or higher
$60 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The dominant market positioning on 52-53°F as Seattle’s September 11, 2026, low stems from official observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and nearby stations, which recorded a minimum near 53°F under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds.** This aligns with the seasonal average low of 53.9°F for the date and recent model consensus showing minimal overnight cooling amid stable high pressure. Traders assign over 90% implied probability to this narrow band because preliminary climatological summaries and hourly METAR data converged on values in the low-to-mid 50s, with little model spread or station discrepancy. A realistic challenge would require an upward revision in the final National Weather Service summary or confirmation that a different official site (such as downtown) measured 54°F or higher, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary data are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,198End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The dominant market positioning on 52-53°F as Seattle’s September 11, 2026, low stems from official observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and nearby stations, which recorded a minimum near 53°F under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds.** This aligns with the seasonal average low of 53.9°F for the date and recent model consensus showing minimal overnight cooling amid stable high pressure. Traders assign over 90% implied probability to this narrow band because preliminary climatological summaries and hourly METAR data converged on values in the low-to-mid 50s, with little model spread or station discrepancy. A realistic challenge would require an upward revision in the final National Weather Service summary or confirmation that a different official site (such as downtown) measured 54°F or higher, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary data are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,198End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The dominant market positioning on 52-53°F as Seattle’s September 11, 2026, low stems from official observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and nearby stations, which recorded a minimum near 53°F under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds.** This aligns with the seasonal average low of 53.9°F for the date and recent model consensus showing minimal overnight cooling amid stable high pressure. Traders assign over 90% implied probability to this narrow band because preliminary climatological summaries and hourly METAR data converged on values in the low-to-mid 50s, with little model spread or station discrepancy. A realistic challenge would require an upward revision in the final National Weather Service summary or confirmation that a different official site (such as downtown) measured 54°F or higher, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary data are released.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions