Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model runs valid as of September 16, indicate a daily maximum temperature near 22–23 °C for Buenos Aires on September 18 under mostly sunny to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow. This places the outcome near the middle of the listed bins while springtime warming and variable steering patterns introduce modest upside risk. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5 % implied probability on 26 °C or higher, appears to embed remaining model spread and potential for brief warm advection ahead of any frontal passage, tempered by the narrow two-day forecast window and typical diurnal ranges observed in early spring climatology. Updated guidance from official agencies on September 17–18 will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 18?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 18?
26°C or higher 50%
23°C 40%
24°C 39%
25°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
9%
22°C
23%
23°C
40%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
50%
26°C or higher 50%
23°C 40%
24°C 39%
25°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
3%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C
$0 Vol.
23%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model runs valid as of September 16, indicate a daily maximum temperature near 22–23 °C for Buenos Aires on September 18 under mostly sunny to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow. This places the outcome near the middle of the listed bins while springtime warming and variable steering patterns introduce modest upside risk. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5 % implied probability on 26 °C or higher, appears to embed remaining model spread and potential for brief warm advection ahead of any frontal passage, tempered by the narrow two-day forecast window and typical diurnal ranges observed in early spring climatology. Updated guidance from official agencies on September 17–18 will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model runs valid as of September 16, indicate a daily maximum temperature near 22–23 °C for Buenos Aires on September 18 under mostly sunny to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow. This places the outcome near the middle of the listed bins while springtime warming and variable steering patterns introduce modest upside risk. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5 % implied probability on 26 °C or higher, appears to embed remaining model spread and potential for brief warm advection ahead of any frontal passage, tempered by the narrow two-day forecast window and typical diurnal ranges observed in early spring climatology. Updated guidance from official agencies on September 17–18 will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model runs valid as of September 16, indicate a daily maximum temperature near 22–23 °C for Buenos Aires on September 18 under mostly sunny to overcast skies with light northeasterly flow. This places the outcome near the middle of the listed bins while springtime warming and variable steering patterns introduce modest upside risk. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5 % implied probability on 26 °C or higher, appears to embed remaining model spread and potential for brief warm advection ahead of any frontal passage, tempered by the narrow two-day forecast window and typical diurnal ranges observed in early spring climatology. Updated guidance from official agencies on September 17–18 will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions