**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major models converge on a sunny September 18 high near 22°C in Toronto, driven by northerly flow and clear conditions that limit afternoon warming.** This consensus aligns with the historical average high of 21.4°C for the date and supports elevated implied probabilities around the 22–23°C outcomes. However, model spread and potential for slightly stronger southerly influence or reduced cloud cover create realistic upside scenarios into the mid-20s, sustaining the 48% market-implied odds for 24°C or higher. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 18?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 18?
24°C or higher 48%
18°C 39%
19°C 39%
21°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
5%
15°C
4%
16°C
4%
17°C
7%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
21%
21°C
29%
22°C
29%
23°C
22%
24°C or higher
48%
24°C or higher 48%
18°C 39%
19°C 39%
21°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
29%
22°C
$0 Vol.
29%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major models converge on a sunny September 18 high near 22°C in Toronto, driven by northerly flow and clear conditions that limit afternoon warming.** This consensus aligns with the historical average high of 21.4°C for the date and supports elevated implied probabilities around the 22–23°C outcomes. However, model spread and potential for slightly stronger southerly influence or reduced cloud cover create realistic upside scenarios into the mid-20s, sustaining the 48% market-implied odds for 24°C or higher. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major models converge on a sunny September 18 high near 22°C in Toronto, driven by northerly flow and clear conditions that limit afternoon warming.** This consensus aligns with the historical average high of 21.4°C for the date and supports elevated implied probabilities around the 22–23°C outcomes. However, model spread and potential for slightly stronger southerly influence or reduced cloud cover create realistic upside scenarios into the mid-20s, sustaining the 48% market-implied odds for 24°C or higher. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major models converge on a sunny September 18 high near 22°C in Toronto, driven by northerly flow and clear conditions that limit afternoon warming.** This consensus aligns with the historical average high of 21.4°C for the date and supports elevated implied probabilities around the 22–23°C outcomes. However, model spread and potential for slightly stronger southerly influence or reduced cloud cover create realistic upside scenarios into the mid-20s, sustaining the 48% market-implied odds for 24°C or higher. Upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions