Official observations from Guangzhou meteorological stations show the daily maximum temperature reached 31°C in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies with scattered light rain, aligning with model consensus and real-time readings peaking near that threshold. This strong data consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 31°C, as September climatology in the region typically features highs around 32°C but moderated here by cloud cover and humidity near 65-75%. Traders assign negligible probability to other outcomes because the day’s peak has already been recorded and verified. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day revision from additional station data or measurement adjustments by the China Meteorological Administration, though such changes are rare once afternoon observations are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 16?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 16?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$47,758 Vol.
$47,758 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$47,758 Vol.
$47,758 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
$338 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$354 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,206 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,306 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,811 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$12,571 Vol.
100%
32°C
$5,935 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$8,025 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$5,340 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$4,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from Guangzhou meteorological stations show the daily maximum temperature reached 31°C in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies with scattered light rain, aligning with model consensus and real-time readings peaking near that threshold. This strong data consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 31°C, as September climatology in the region typically features highs around 32°C but moderated here by cloud cover and humidity near 65-75%. Traders assign negligible probability to other outcomes because the day’s peak has already been recorded and verified. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day revision from additional station data or measurement adjustments by the China Meteorological Administration, though such changes are rare once afternoon observations are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$47,758End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from Guangzhou meteorological stations show the daily maximum temperature reached 31°C in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies with scattered light rain, aligning with model consensus and real-time readings peaking near that threshold. This strong data consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 31°C, as September climatology in the region typically features highs around 32°C but moderated here by cloud cover and humidity near 65-75%. Traders assign negligible probability to other outcomes because the day’s peak has already been recorded and verified. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day revision from additional station data or measurement adjustments by the China Meteorological Administration, though such changes are rare once afternoon observations are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$47,758End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from Guangzhou meteorological stations show the daily maximum temperature reached 31°C in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies with scattered light rain, aligning with model consensus and real-time readings peaking near that threshold. This strong data consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 31°C, as September climatology in the region typically features highs around 32°C but moderated here by cloud cover and humidity near 65-75%. Traders assign negligible probability to other outcomes because the day’s peak has already been recorded and verified. A realistic challenge would require an official post-day revision from additional station data or measurement adjustments by the China Meteorological Administration, though such changes are rare once afternoon observations are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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