Current forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 97–99°F for Austin on September 18, driven by clear to mostly sunny skies, light southeast winds, and strong daytime solar heating under late-summer atmospheric conditions with dew points in the mid-70s. This setup favors peak temperatures in the upper 90s, consistent with climatological norms for mid-September when high pressure dominates and minimal cloud cover allows efficient surface warming. The closely matched market odds around 96–99°F reflect genuine model spread in afternoon mixing and subtle moisture advection, with lower-probability bins for 100°F+ hinging on any unexpected clearing or warmer boundary-layer air. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 18?
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 37%
102-103°F 19%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
87°F or below
5%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
37%
98-99°F
37%
100-101°F
16%
102-103°F
19%
104-105°F
5%
106°F or higher
6%
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 37%
102-103°F 19%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
87°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
5%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
10%
94-95°F
$16 Vol.
18%
96-97°F
$3 Vol.
37%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
37%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
16%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
19%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
5%
106°F or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 97–99°F for Austin on September 18, driven by clear to mostly sunny skies, light southeast winds, and strong daytime solar heating under late-summer atmospheric conditions with dew points in the mid-70s. This setup favors peak temperatures in the upper 90s, consistent with climatological norms for mid-September when high pressure dominates and minimal cloud cover allows efficient surface warming. The closely matched market odds around 96–99°F reflect genuine model spread in afternoon mixing and subtle moisture advection, with lower-probability bins for 100°F+ hinging on any unexpected clearing or warmer boundary-layer air. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 97–99°F for Austin on September 18, driven by clear to mostly sunny skies, light southeast winds, and strong daytime solar heating under late-summer atmospheric conditions with dew points in the mid-70s. This setup favors peak temperatures in the upper 90s, consistent with climatological norms for mid-September when high pressure dominates and minimal cloud cover allows efficient surface warming. The closely matched market odds around 96–99°F reflect genuine model spread in afternoon mixing and subtle moisture advection, with lower-probability bins for 100°F+ hinging on any unexpected clearing or warmer boundary-layer air. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models converge on a high of 97–99°F for Austin on September 18, driven by clear to mostly sunny skies, light southeast winds, and strong daytime solar heating under late-summer atmospheric conditions with dew points in the mid-70s. This setup favors peak temperatures in the upper 90s, consistent with climatological norms for mid-September when high pressure dominates and minimal cloud cover allows efficient surface warming. The closely matched market odds around 96–99°F reflect genuine model spread in afternoon mixing and subtle moisture advection, with lower-probability bins for 100°F+ hinging on any unexpected clearing or warmer boundary-layer air. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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