Recent NWS and model guidance for September 18 points to a high in the low 80s across New York City stations, driven by northerly winds behind a weak front that clear skies and limit moisture while moderating daytime heating above seasonal norms. The 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning because ensemble runs cluster there, with minor spreads arising from exact wind speeds, residual cloud cover, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°F at Central Park. Historical averages near 76°F underscore the above-normal pattern, yet short-range model variability and the narrow resolution windows keep adjacent bins viable until final observations confirm the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 18?
80-81°F 38%
82-83°F 31%
78-79°F 29%
84-85°F 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
71°F or below
18%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
29%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
10%
90°F or higher
17%
80-81°F 38%
82-83°F 31%
78-79°F 29%
84-85°F 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
18%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
29%
80-81°F
$69 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
24%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
16%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
10%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for September 18 points to a high in the low 80s across New York City stations, driven by northerly winds behind a weak front that clear skies and limit moisture while moderating daytime heating above seasonal norms. The 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning because ensemble runs cluster there, with minor spreads arising from exact wind speeds, residual cloud cover, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°F at Central Park. Historical averages near 76°F underscore the above-normal pattern, yet short-range model variability and the narrow resolution windows keep adjacent bins viable until final observations confirm the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for September 18 points to a high in the low 80s across New York City stations, driven by northerly winds behind a weak front that clear skies and limit moisture while moderating daytime heating above seasonal norms. The 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning because ensemble runs cluster there, with minor spreads arising from exact wind speeds, residual cloud cover, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°F at Central Park. Historical averages near 76°F underscore the above-normal pattern, yet short-range model variability and the narrow resolution windows keep adjacent bins viable until final observations confirm the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NWS and model guidance for September 18 points to a high in the low 80s across New York City stations, driven by northerly winds behind a weak front that clear skies and limit moisture while moderating daytime heating above seasonal norms. The 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning because ensemble runs cluster there, with minor spreads arising from exact wind speeds, residual cloud cover, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°F at Central Park. Historical averages near 76°F underscore the above-normal pattern, yet short-range model variability and the narrow resolution windows keep adjacent bins viable until final observations confirm the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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