Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City point to an overnight low near 70°F on September 18 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds after a warm, humid southerly flow. This above-average reading stems from a lingering warm air mass and elevated dewpoints that limit radiational cooling, despite the wind shift. Ensemble consensus keeps most solutions clustered in the upper 60s to low 70s, supporting the market's leading 70-71°F outcome at 38% implied probability. Cooler 61°F-or-below scenarios at 24% would require an unforecasted frontal surge or stronger clear-sky cooling not currently indicated. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 18?
61°F or below 48%
68-69°F 43%
70-71°F 38%
72-73°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
61°F or below
48%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
43%
70-71°F
38%
72-73°F
23%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
2%
80°F or higher
2%
61°F or below 48%
68-69°F 43%
70-71°F 38%
72-73°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
48%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
7%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
11%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
43%
70-71°F
$2 Vol.
38%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
23%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
2%
80°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City point to an overnight low near 70°F on September 18 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds after a warm, humid southerly flow. This above-average reading stems from a lingering warm air mass and elevated dewpoints that limit radiational cooling, despite the wind shift. Ensemble consensus keeps most solutions clustered in the upper 60s to low 70s, supporting the market's leading 70-71°F outcome at 38% implied probability. Cooler 61°F-or-below scenarios at 24% would require an unforecasted frontal surge or stronger clear-sky cooling not currently indicated. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City point to an overnight low near 70°F on September 18 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds after a warm, humid southerly flow. This above-average reading stems from a lingering warm air mass and elevated dewpoints that limit radiational cooling, despite the wind shift. Ensemble consensus keeps most solutions clustered in the upper 60s to low 70s, supporting the market's leading 70-71°F outcome at 38% implied probability. Cooler 61°F-or-below scenarios at 24% would require an unforecasted frontal surge or stronger clear-sky cooling not currently indicated. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City point to an overnight low near 70°F on September 18 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds after a warm, humid southerly flow. This above-average reading stems from a lingering warm air mass and elevated dewpoints that limit radiational cooling, despite the wind shift. Ensemble consensus keeps most solutions clustered in the upper 60s to low 70s, supporting the market's leading 70-71°F outcome at 38% implied probability. Cooler 61°F-or-below scenarios at 24% would require an unforecasted frontal surge or stronger clear-sky cooling not currently indicated. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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