Traders see 32–33°C as the most probable high for Manila on September 18 because short-range models show the southwest monsoon delivering scattered showers and persistent cloud cover that typically cap daytime maxima near seasonal norms. PAGASA guidance and global ensembles highlight modest variability from wind patterns and moisture influx, with clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C while heavier rain or stronger monsoon flow would suppress readings to 31°C or lower. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 31–32°C, and the tight clustering of market odds reflects uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of convective activity ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 18?
33°C 33%
32°C 25%
31°C 20%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
14%
31°C
20%
32°C
25%
33°C
33%
34°C
10%
35°C
7%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 33%
32°C 25%
31°C 20%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
14%
31°C
$0 Vol.
20%
32°C
$0 Vol.
25%
33°C
$327 Vol.
33%
34°C
$26 Vol.
10%
35°C
$0 Vol.
7%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$225 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 32–33°C as the most probable high for Manila on September 18 because short-range models show the southwest monsoon delivering scattered showers and persistent cloud cover that typically cap daytime maxima near seasonal norms. PAGASA guidance and global ensembles highlight modest variability from wind patterns and moisture influx, with clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C while heavier rain or stronger monsoon flow would suppress readings to 31°C or lower. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 31–32°C, and the tight clustering of market odds reflects uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of convective activity ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$730End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 32–33°C as the most probable high for Manila on September 18 because short-range models show the southwest monsoon delivering scattered showers and persistent cloud cover that typically cap daytime maxima near seasonal norms. PAGASA guidance and global ensembles highlight modest variability from wind patterns and moisture influx, with clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C while heavier rain or stronger monsoon flow would suppress readings to 31°C or lower. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 31–32°C, and the tight clustering of market odds reflects uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of convective activity ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$730End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 32–33°C as the most probable high for Manila on September 18 because short-range models show the southwest monsoon delivering scattered showers and persistent cloud cover that typically cap daytime maxima near seasonal norms. PAGASA guidance and global ensembles highlight modest variability from wind patterns and moisture influx, with clearer breaks potentially allowing brief spikes to 34°C while heavier rain or stronger monsoon flow would suppress readings to 31°C or lower. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 31–32°C, and the tight clustering of market odds reflects uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of convective activity ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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