**Short-term forecast models indicate overnight lows in Manila around 24–26°C on September 18 amid ITCZ-driven cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling.** PAGASA and global guidance project a diurnal range with daytime highs near 32–33°C and minima typically occurring pre-dawn under mostly cloudy skies, consistent with September climatology where averages hover near 25–26°C. Model differences in exact timing of rain and wind patterns introduce modest uncertainty in the precise minimum, supporting closely matched market-implied odds for both sub-21°C and 30°C+ outcomes. High moisture content and light variable winds further constrain temperature swings, while no major tropical cyclone influence is expected in the immediate window. Updated model runs and official observations on the 17th–18th will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 18?
20°C or below 94%
30°C or higher 91%
24°C 40%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
94%
21°C
38%
22°C
38%
23°C
38%
24°C
40%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
24%
28°C
38%
29°C
38%
30°C or higher
91%
20°C or below 94%
30°C or higher 91%
24°C 40%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C
$0 Vol.
38%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$32 Vol.
24%
28°C
$0 Vol.
38%
29°C
$0 Vol.
38%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models indicate overnight lows in Manila around 24–26°C on September 18 amid ITCZ-driven cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling.** PAGASA and global guidance project a diurnal range with daytime highs near 32–33°C and minima typically occurring pre-dawn under mostly cloudy skies, consistent with September climatology where averages hover near 25–26°C. Model differences in exact timing of rain and wind patterns introduce modest uncertainty in the precise minimum, supporting closely matched market-implied odds for both sub-21°C and 30°C+ outcomes. High moisture content and light variable winds further constrain temperature swings, while no major tropical cyclone influence is expected in the immediate window. Updated model runs and official observations on the 17th–18th will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models indicate overnight lows in Manila around 24–26°C on September 18 amid ITCZ-driven cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling.** PAGASA and global guidance project a diurnal range with daytime highs near 32–33°C and minima typically occurring pre-dawn under mostly cloudy skies, consistent with September climatology where averages hover near 25–26°C. Model differences in exact timing of rain and wind patterns introduce modest uncertainty in the precise minimum, supporting closely matched market-implied odds for both sub-21°C and 30°C+ outcomes. High moisture content and light variable winds further constrain temperature swings, while no major tropical cyclone influence is expected in the immediate window. Updated model runs and official observations on the 17th–18th will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast models indicate overnight lows in Manila around 24–26°C on September 18 amid ITCZ-driven cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling.** PAGASA and global guidance project a diurnal range with daytime highs near 32–33°C and minima typically occurring pre-dawn under mostly cloudy skies, consistent with September climatology where averages hover near 25–26°C. Model differences in exact timing of rain and wind patterns introduce modest uncertainty in the precise minimum, supporting closely matched market-implied odds for both sub-21°C and 30°C+ outcomes. High moisture content and light variable winds further constrain temperature swings, while no major tropical cyclone influence is expected in the immediate window. Updated model runs and official observations on the 17th–18th will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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