**Market-implied odds place overwhelming confidence on a 32°C high in Manila on September 16, reflecting trader consensus aligned with official forecasts and regional climatology.** In this tropical monsoon setting during the peak rainy season, daytime heating typically peaks near or slightly above the 30–31°C September average, but model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a maximum around 32°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Convective clouds and precipitation timing limit further warming, while light winds and sea-breeze effects moderate extremes. This positioning matches observed trends where isolated storms often cap the daily high precisely near 32°C. Realistic challenges include earlier or more widespread heavy rain suppressing the peak below 31°C, or clearer skies allowing a brief push to 33°C before convection develops.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 16?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$45,634 Vol.
$45,634 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$45,634 Vol.
$45,634 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$387 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$814 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,392 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,829 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,243 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10,432 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$11,850 Vol.
100%
33°C
$9,819 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,121 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$507 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds place overwhelming confidence on a 32°C high in Manila on September 16, reflecting trader consensus aligned with official forecasts and regional climatology.** In this tropical monsoon setting during the peak rainy season, daytime heating typically peaks near or slightly above the 30–31°C September average, but model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a maximum around 32°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Convective clouds and precipitation timing limit further warming, while light winds and sea-breeze effects moderate extremes. This positioning matches observed trends where isolated storms often cap the daily high precisely near 32°C. Realistic challenges include earlier or more widespread heavy rain suppressing the peak below 31°C, or clearer skies allowing a brief push to 33°C before convection develops.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$45,634End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds place overwhelming confidence on a 32°C high in Manila on September 16, reflecting trader consensus aligned with official forecasts and regional climatology.** In this tropical monsoon setting during the peak rainy season, daytime heating typically peaks near or slightly above the 30–31°C September average, but model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a maximum around 32°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Convective clouds and precipitation timing limit further warming, while light winds and sea-breeze effects moderate extremes. This positioning matches observed trends where isolated storms often cap the daily high precisely near 32°C. Realistic challenges include earlier or more widespread heavy rain suppressing the peak below 31°C, or clearer skies allowing a brief push to 33°C before convection develops.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,634End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds place overwhelming confidence on a 32°C high in Manila on September 16, reflecting trader consensus aligned with official forecasts and regional climatology.** In this tropical monsoon setting during the peak rainy season, daytime heating typically peaks near or slightly above the 30–31°C September average, but model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a maximum around 32°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity. Convective clouds and precipitation timing limit further warming, while light winds and sea-breeze effects moderate extremes. This positioning matches observed trends where isolated storms often cap the daily high precisely near 32°C. Realistic challenges include earlier or more widespread heavy rain suppressing the peak below 31°C, or clearer skies allowing a brief push to 33°C before convection develops.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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