**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 30–32°C in Manila on September 17, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32°C (38.5%) and 31°C (28.5%).** Persistent influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is generating widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall, which limits solar heating and caps peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31°C. Recent PAGASA observations recorded a 32.4°C maximum on September 16 under partly cloudy conditions, while GFS and ECMWF runs for the 17th show similar maxima amid 70–90% storm probabilities and light variable winds. These factors create tight clustering around the 30–33°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the stabilizing effect of monsoon moisture and typical September variability in the Philippine lowlands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 17?
32°C 39%
31°C 30%
30°C 16%
33°C 15%
NEW
$15,159 Vol.
NEW
$15,159 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
16%
31°C
30%
32°C
39%
33°C
15%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
31°C 30%
30°C 16%
33°C 15%
NEW
$15,159 Vol.
NEW
$15,159 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
26°C or below
$1,048 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$199 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$40 Vol.
2%
29°C
$441 Vol.
5%
30°C
$2,947 Vol.
16%
31°C
$1,517 Vol.
30%
32°C
$5,312 Vol.
39%
33°C
$3,142 Vol.
15%
34°C
$92 Vol.
2%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$421 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 30–32°C in Manila on September 17, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32°C (38.5%) and 31°C (28.5%).** Persistent influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is generating widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall, which limits solar heating and caps peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31°C. Recent PAGASA observations recorded a 32.4°C maximum on September 16 under partly cloudy conditions, while GFS and ECMWF runs for the 17th show similar maxima amid 70–90% storm probabilities and light variable winds. These factors create tight clustering around the 30–33°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the stabilizing effect of monsoon moisture and typical September variability in the Philippine lowlands.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$15,159End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 30–32°C in Manila on September 17, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32°C (38.5%) and 31°C (28.5%).** Persistent influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is generating widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall, which limits solar heating and caps peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31°C. Recent PAGASA observations recorded a 32.4°C maximum on September 16 under partly cloudy conditions, while GFS and ECMWF runs for the 17th show similar maxima amid 70–90% storm probabilities and light variable winds. These factors create tight clustering around the 30–33°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the stabilizing effect of monsoon moisture and typical September variability in the Philippine lowlands.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,159End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 30–32°C in Manila on September 17, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32°C (38.5%) and 31°C (28.5%).** Persistent influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is generating widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall, which limits solar heating and caps peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31°C. Recent PAGASA observations recorded a 32.4°C maximum on September 16 under partly cloudy conditions, while GFS and ECMWF runs for the 17th show similar maxima amid 70–90% storm probabilities and light variable winds. These factors create tight clustering around the 30–33°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the stabilizing effect of monsoon moisture and typical September variability in the Philippine lowlands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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