The Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 31°C daily maximum under northeast monsoon influence and high-pressure subsidence drives the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. Persistent fine, dry conditions with only low-probability showers, moderate easterly winds, and daytime solar heating aligned with climatological norms for mid-September have produced observed highs near 31–32°C across multiple stations. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because model consensus and real-time readings show little scope for rapid change before sunset. Only unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized heavy rain, or a sharper wind shift could realistically pull the peak below or push it above this threshold before the day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$123,062 Vol.
$123,062 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$123,062 Vol.
$123,062 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
$712 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$259 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,354 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$37,243 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$10,701 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$23,959 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$19,650 Vol.
100%
32°C
$16,646 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$8,897 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,686 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,955 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 31°C daily maximum under northeast monsoon influence and high-pressure subsidence drives the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. Persistent fine, dry conditions with only low-probability showers, moderate easterly winds, and daytime solar heating aligned with climatological norms for mid-September have produced observed highs near 31–32°C across multiple stations. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because model consensus and real-time readings show little scope for rapid change before sunset. Only unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized heavy rain, or a sharper wind shift could realistically pull the peak below or push it above this threshold before the day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$123,062End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 31°C daily maximum under northeast monsoon influence and high-pressure subsidence drives the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. Persistent fine, dry conditions with only low-probability showers, moderate easterly winds, and daytime solar heating aligned with climatological norms for mid-September have produced observed highs near 31–32°C across multiple stations. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because model consensus and real-time readings show little scope for rapid change before sunset. Only unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized heavy rain, or a sharper wind shift could realistically pull the peak below or push it above this threshold before the day closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$123,062End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 31°C daily maximum under northeast monsoon influence and high-pressure subsidence drives the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. Persistent fine, dry conditions with only low-probability showers, moderate easterly winds, and daytime solar heating aligned with climatological norms for mid-September have produced observed highs near 31–32°C across multiple stations. Traders assign negligible odds to deviations because model consensus and real-time readings show little scope for rapid change before sunset. Only unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized heavy rain, or a sharper wind shift could realistically pull the peak below or push it above this threshold before the day closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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