**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory underpin the market's strong 91.5% implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16.** Persistent northeast monsoon flow is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dry air across the region, limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near the seasonal norm of 26–27°C. Recent model runs and station observations through the day have shown no significant deviation, reinforcing trader consensus around this outcome. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or localized showers that enhance cooling, though current guidance assigns low probability to such developments before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
27°C 90%
26°C 10%
25°C 3%
23°C 1.6%
$13,399 Vol.
$13,399 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
11%
27°C
90%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 90%
26°C 10%
25°C 3%
23°C 1.6%
$13,399 Vol.
$13,399 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
21°C or below
$188 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$115 Vol.
2%
24°C
$613 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,232 Vol.
3%
26°C
$3,380 Vol.
11%
27°C
$3,868 Vol.
90%
28°C
$1,623 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,172 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory underpin the market's strong 91.5% implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16.** Persistent northeast monsoon flow is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dry air across the region, limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near the seasonal norm of 26–27°C. Recent model runs and station observations through the day have shown no significant deviation, reinforcing trader consensus around this outcome. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or localized showers that enhance cooling, though current guidance assigns low probability to such developments before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,399End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory underpin the market's strong 91.5% implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16.** Persistent northeast monsoon flow is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dry air across the region, limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near the seasonal norm of 26–27°C. Recent model runs and station observations through the day have shown no significant deviation, reinforcing trader consensus around this outcome. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or localized showers that enhance cooling, though current guidance assigns low probability to such developments before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,399End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory underpin the market's strong 91.5% implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16.** Persistent northeast monsoon flow is delivering clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dry air across the region, limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding minimum temperatures near the seasonal norm of 26–27°C. Recent model runs and station observations through the day have shown no significant deviation, reinforcing trader consensus around this outcome. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or localized showers that enhance cooling, though current guidance assigns low probability to such developments before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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