**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a minimum temperature of 27°C on September 17 under the influence of a fresh northeast monsoon and an anticyclone aloft, which are sustaining generally fine, dry conditions with easterly winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore.** This setup favors clear skies that promote radiative cooling overnight, though the consistent wind flow limits how far temperatures drop below the forecast floor. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting overnight lows near 25–26°C, creating the narrow spread that places 26°C and 27°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes. The absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation in the latest runs reinforces trader consensus around these values, while the low probabilities on 25°C or below reflect the limited scope for further cooling given the established monsoon pattern and sea-surface temperatures near 28°C. Updated model guidance or local observations on the morning of the 17th could shift the exact minimum within this tight range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 17?
26°C 53%
27°C 44%
25°C 4%
21°C or below 2%
NEW
$13,012 Vol.
NEW
$13,012 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
4%
26°C
53%
27°C
44%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
26°C 53%
27°C 44%
25°C 4%
21°C or below 2%
NEW
$13,012 Vol.
NEW
$13,012 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$769 Vol.
4%
26°C
$3,812 Vol.
53%
27°C
$4,901 Vol.
44%
28°C
$2,346 Vol.
2%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,142 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$37 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a minimum temperature of 27°C on September 17 under the influence of a fresh northeast monsoon and an anticyclone aloft, which are sustaining generally fine, dry conditions with easterly winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore.**
This setup favors clear skies that promote radiative cooling overnight, though the consistent wind flow limits how far temperatures drop below the forecast floor. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting overnight lows near 25–26°C, creating the narrow spread that places 26°C and 27°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes. The absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation in the latest runs reinforces trader consensus around these values, while the low probabilities on 25°C or below reflect the limited scope for further cooling given the established monsoon pattern and sea-surface temperatures near 28°C. Updated model guidance or local observations on the morning of the 17th could shift the exact minimum within this tight range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$13,012End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a minimum temperature of 27°C on September 17 under the influence of a fresh northeast monsoon and an anticyclone aloft, which are sustaining generally fine, dry conditions with easterly winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore.**
This setup favors clear skies that promote radiative cooling overnight, though the consistent wind flow limits how far temperatures drop below the forecast floor. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting overnight lows near 25–26°C, creating the narrow spread that places 26°C and 27°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes. The absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation in the latest runs reinforces trader consensus around these values, while the low probabilities on 25°C or below reflect the limited scope for further cooling given the established monsoon pattern and sea-surface temperatures near 28°C. Updated model guidance or local observations on the morning of the 17th could shift the exact minimum within this tight range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,012End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a minimum temperature of 27°C on September 17 under the influence of a fresh northeast monsoon and an anticyclone aloft, which are sustaining generally fine, dry conditions with easterly winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore.** This setup favors clear skies that promote radiative cooling overnight, though the consistent wind flow limits how far temperatures drop below the forecast floor. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting overnight lows near 25–26°C, creating the narrow spread that places 26°C and 27°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes. The absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation in the latest runs reinforces trader consensus around these values, while the low probabilities on 25°C or below reflect the limited scope for further cooling given the established monsoon pattern and sea-surface temperatures near 28°C. Updated model guidance or local observations on the morning of the 17th could shift the exact minimum within this tight range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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