Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 11–13°C for Mexico City on September 18, consistent with September climatology at the city’s 2,250 m elevation where clear-sky radiative cooling typically produces lows around 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with the late wet season are expected to limit overnight temperature drops by trapping heat and increasing humidity, reducing the likelihood of extremes. Trader consensus near 50% on both ≤5°C and ≥15°C reflects model spread in short-range guidance and the binary resolution structure, while lower probabilities on intermediate bins align with the narrower historical range of 10–14°C for similar late-September nights. Updated NHC/NOAA or local service runs on the 17th will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 18?
5°C or below 99%
15°C or higher 98%
13°C 40%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
99%
6°C
38%
7°C
38%
8°C
38%
9°C
38%
10°C
38%
11°C
38%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
39%
15°C or higher
98%
5°C or below 99%
15°C or higher 98%
13°C 40%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
6°C
$0 Vol.
38%
7°C
$0 Vol.
38%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
38%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$3 Vol.
21%
14°C
$3 Vol.
39%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 11–13°C for Mexico City on September 18, consistent with September climatology at the city’s 2,250 m elevation where clear-sky radiative cooling typically produces lows around 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with the late wet season are expected to limit overnight temperature drops by trapping heat and increasing humidity, reducing the likelihood of extremes. Trader consensus near 50% on both ≤5°C and ≥15°C reflects model spread in short-range guidance and the binary resolution structure, while lower probabilities on intermediate bins align with the narrower historical range of 10–14°C for similar late-September nights. Updated NHC/NOAA or local service runs on the 17th will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 11–13°C for Mexico City on September 18, consistent with September climatology at the city’s 2,250 m elevation where clear-sky radiative cooling typically produces lows around 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with the late wet season are expected to limit overnight temperature drops by trapping heat and increasing humidity, reducing the likelihood of extremes. Trader consensus near 50% on both ≤5°C and ≥15°C reflects model spread in short-range guidance and the binary resolution structure, while lower probabilities on intermediate bins align with the narrower historical range of 10–14°C for similar late-September nights. Updated NHC/NOAA or local service runs on the 17th will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 11–13°C for Mexico City on September 18, consistent with September climatology at the city’s 2,250 m elevation where clear-sky radiative cooling typically produces lows around 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with the late wet season are expected to limit overnight temperature drops by trapping heat and increasing humidity, reducing the likelihood of extremes. Trader consensus near 50% on both ≤5°C and ≥15°C reflects model spread in short-range guidance and the binary resolution structure, while lower probabilities on intermediate bins align with the narrower historical range of 10–14°C for similar late-September nights. Updated NHC/NOAA or local service runs on the 17th will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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