**Forecast models and observational data position a daytime maximum of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on September 16, 2026.** Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, combined with partly to mostly clear skies, are supporting gradual afternoon warming without strong heat advection or subsidence. Current station readings from AEMET and nearby sites show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s °C by midday, consistent with guidance projecting a peak near 27–28°C. This aligns with the late-summer climatological average high of 26.4°C while reflecting slightly elevated but not anomalous conditions. Lower probabilities for 29°C or above reflect limited additional heating potential under the prevailing flow, while the small chance assigned to 27°C or below accounts for possible earlier cooling from increased cloud cover or showers later in the day. Market-implied odds aggregate trader assessments of these meteorological variables ahead of final official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
28°C 53%
29°C 30%
27°C 12%
30°C <1%
$45,928 Vol.
$45,928 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
12%
28°C
56%
29°C
30%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
28°C 53%
29°C 30%
27°C 12%
30°C <1%
$45,928 Vol.
$45,928 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$7,322 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$6,089 Vol.
12%
28°C
$7,735 Vol.
56%
29°C
$8,895 Vol.
30%
30°C
$7,565 Vol.
1%
31°C
$4,131 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,709 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,719 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$279 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$373 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational data position a daytime maximum of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on September 16, 2026.** Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, combined with partly to mostly clear skies, are supporting gradual afternoon warming without strong heat advection or subsidence. Current station readings from AEMET and nearby sites show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s °C by midday, consistent with guidance projecting a peak near 27–28°C. This aligns with the late-summer climatological average high of 26.4°C while reflecting slightly elevated but not anomalous conditions. Lower probabilities for 29°C or above reflect limited additional heating potential under the prevailing flow, while the small chance assigned to 27°C or below accounts for possible earlier cooling from increased cloud cover or showers later in the day. Market-implied odds aggregate trader assessments of these meteorological variables ahead of final official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$45,928End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational data position a daytime maximum of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on September 16, 2026.** Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, combined with partly to mostly clear skies, are supporting gradual afternoon warming without strong heat advection or subsidence. Current station readings from AEMET and nearby sites show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s °C by midday, consistent with guidance projecting a peak near 27–28°C. This aligns with the late-summer climatological average high of 26.4°C while reflecting slightly elevated but not anomalous conditions. Lower probabilities for 29°C or above reflect limited additional heating potential under the prevailing flow, while the small chance assigned to 27°C or below accounts for possible earlier cooling from increased cloud cover or showers later in the day. Market-implied odds aggregate trader assessments of these meteorological variables ahead of final official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,928End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observational data position a daytime maximum of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on September 16, 2026.** Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, combined with partly to mostly clear skies, are supporting gradual afternoon warming without strong heat advection or subsidence. Current station readings from AEMET and nearby sites show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s °C by midday, consistent with guidance projecting a peak near 27–28°C. This aligns with the late-summer climatological average high of 26.4°C while reflecting slightly elevated but not anomalous conditions. Lower probabilities for 29°C or above reflect limited additional heating potential under the prevailing flow, while the small chance assigned to 27°C or below accounts for possible earlier cooling from increased cloud cover or showers later in the day. Market-implied odds aggregate trader assessments of these meteorological variables ahead of final official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions