Recent meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light easterly winds over Madrid for September 18, supporting a daytime maximum near 27–28 °C under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 28 °C (56 %) over 27 °C (33 %), reflecting minor ensemble spread and the typical 1–2 °C uncertainty range in short-range predictions two days ahead. September climatology shows an average high of 26 °C, so current guidance points to modestly above-normal conditions without extreme heat drivers like strong subsidence or southerly flow. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and official AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could shift the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 50%
27°C 31%
29°C 17%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
31%
28°C
50%
29°C
17%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 50%
27°C 31%
29°C 17%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$103 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$199 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$302 Vol.
3%
27°C
$882 Vol.
31%
28°C
$504 Vol.
50%
29°C
$508 Vol.
17%
30°C
$15 Vol.
1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$103 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light easterly winds over Madrid for September 18, supporting a daytime maximum near 27–28 °C under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 28 °C (56 %) over 27 °C (33 %), reflecting minor ensemble spread and the typical 1–2 °C uncertainty range in short-range predictions two days ahead. September climatology shows an average high of 26 °C, so current guidance points to modestly above-normal conditions without extreme heat drivers like strong subsidence or southerly flow. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and official AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could shift the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,734End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light easterly winds over Madrid for September 18, supporting a daytime maximum near 27–28 °C under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 28 °C (56 %) over 27 °C (33 %), reflecting minor ensemble spread and the typical 1–2 °C uncertainty range in short-range predictions two days ahead. September climatology shows an average high of 26 °C, so current guidance points to modestly above-normal conditions without extreme heat drivers like strong subsidence or southerly flow. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and official AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could shift the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,734End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light easterly winds over Madrid for September 18, supporting a daytime maximum near 27–28 °C under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 28 °C (56 %) over 27 °C (33 %), reflecting minor ensemble spread and the typical 1–2 °C uncertainty range in short-range predictions two days ahead. September climatology shows an average high of 26 °C, so current guidance points to modestly above-normal conditions without extreme heat drivers like strong subsidence or southerly flow. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and official AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could shift the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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