Official forecasts from agencies and models such as GFS place Amsterdam’s daytime maximum near 19°C on September 16, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers and westerly winds of 10–15 mph. This consensus, consistent across multiple runs and historical analogs for mid-September in the region, underpins the 97% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Short-term numerical weather prediction skill is high at this lead time, though modest uncertainty remains from localized convective development or slight timing shifts in frontal passage that could nudge the peak by 1°C either side. Updated model guidance or real-time observations near peak heating hours represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 16?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 16?
19°C 96%
20°C 4%
21°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
$39,280 Vol.
$39,280 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
96%
20°C
4%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 96%
20°C 4%
21°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
$39,280 Vol.
$39,280 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
$441 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$547 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$334 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$958 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$4,541 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$9,640 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$8,532 Vol.
96%
20°C
$8,342 Vol.
4%
21°C
$3,970 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,064 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$912 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies and models such as GFS place Amsterdam’s daytime maximum near 19°C on September 16, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers and westerly winds of 10–15 mph. This consensus, consistent across multiple runs and historical analogs for mid-September in the region, underpins the 97% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Short-term numerical weather prediction skill is high at this lead time, though modest uncertainty remains from localized convective development or slight timing shifts in frontal passage that could nudge the peak by 1°C either side. Updated model guidance or real-time observations near peak heating hours represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$39,280End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies and models such as GFS place Amsterdam’s daytime maximum near 19°C on September 16, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers and westerly winds of 10–15 mph. This consensus, consistent across multiple runs and historical analogs for mid-September in the region, underpins the 97% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Short-term numerical weather prediction skill is high at this lead time, though modest uncertainty remains from localized convective development or slight timing shifts in frontal passage that could nudge the peak by 1°C either side. Updated model guidance or real-time observations near peak heating hours represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,280End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies and models such as GFS place Amsterdam’s daytime maximum near 19°C on September 16, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers and westerly winds of 10–15 mph. This consensus, consistent across multiple runs and historical analogs for mid-September in the region, underpins the 97% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Short-term numerical weather prediction skill is high at this lead time, though modest uncertainty remains from localized convective development or slight timing shifts in frontal passage that could nudge the peak by 1°C either side. Updated model guidance or real-time observations near peak heating hours represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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