Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and multiple numerical models indicate daytime highs in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, clustering around 18–19 °C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate southwesterly winds. This follows cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th associated with a passing frontal system, after which high pressure begins to build and temperatures stabilize near seasonal norms (historical average high ~18.9 °C). Model consensus shows limited spread, with minimal risk of reaching 20 °C or dropping to 17 °C or below, producing the current market-implied odds that heavily favor 18 °C or 19 °C. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
19°C 50%
18°C 35%
20°C 11%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
5%
18°C
35%
19°C
50%
20°C
11%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 50%
18°C 35%
20°C 11%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
13°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$141 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$199 Vol.
5%
18°C
$372 Vol.
35%
19°C
$595 Vol.
50%
20°C
$387 Vol.
11%
21°C
$70 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$141 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and multiple numerical models indicate daytime highs in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, clustering around 18–19 °C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate southwesterly winds. This follows cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th associated with a passing frontal system, after which high pressure begins to build and temperatures stabilize near seasonal norms (historical average high ~18.9 °C). Model consensus shows limited spread, with minimal risk of reaching 20 °C or dropping to 17 °C or below, producing the current market-implied odds that heavily favor 18 °C or 19 °C. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,134End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and multiple numerical models indicate daytime highs in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, clustering around 18–19 °C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate southwesterly winds. This follows cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th associated with a passing frontal system, after which high pressure begins to build and temperatures stabilize near seasonal norms (historical average high ~18.9 °C). Model consensus shows limited spread, with minimal risk of reaching 20 °C or dropping to 17 °C or below, producing the current market-implied odds that heavily favor 18 °C or 19 °C. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,134End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and multiple numerical models indicate daytime highs in Amsterdam on September 18, 2026, clustering around 18–19 °C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate southwesterly winds. This follows cooler, wetter conditions on the 17th associated with a passing frontal system, after which high pressure begins to build and temperatures stabilize near seasonal norms (historical average high ~18.9 °C). Model consensus shows limited spread, with minimal risk of reaching 20 °C or dropping to 17 °C or below, producing the current market-implied odds that heavily favor 18 °C or 19 °C. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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