Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a daily minimum near 13–15 °C on 18 September in Amsterdam, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This setup keeps overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 10.8 °C for the date, while variable winds of 10–15 mph further suppress temperature drops. Trader consensus clustering at 12–13 °C (47 % combined) reflects agreement across early model runs on these conditions, with modest probability mass at 11 °C and 14 °C acknowledging remaining spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. Updated short-range guidance and KNMI briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
13°C 25%
12°C 23%
11°C 12%
14°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
7%
11°C
12%
12°C
23%
13°C
25%
14°C
12%
15°C
11%
16°C
7%
17°C or higher
5%
13°C 25%
12°C 23%
11°C 12%
14°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
2%
10°C
$0 Vol.
7%
11°C
$0 Vol.
12%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
12%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C
$0 Vol.
7%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a daily minimum near 13–15 °C on 18 September in Amsterdam, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This setup keeps overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 10.8 °C for the date, while variable winds of 10–15 mph further suppress temperature drops. Trader consensus clustering at 12–13 °C (47 % combined) reflects agreement across early model runs on these conditions, with modest probability mass at 11 °C and 14 °C acknowledging remaining spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. Updated short-range guidance and KNMI briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a daily minimum near 13–15 °C on 18 September in Amsterdam, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This setup keeps overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 10.8 °C for the date, while variable winds of 10–15 mph further suppress temperature drops. Trader consensus clustering at 12–13 °C (47 % combined) reflects agreement across early model runs on these conditions, with modest probability mass at 11 °C and 14 °C acknowledging remaining spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. Updated short-range guidance and KNMI briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a daily minimum near 13–15 °C on 18 September in Amsterdam, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This setup keeps overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 10.8 °C for the date, while variable winds of 10–15 mph further suppress temperature drops. Trader consensus clustering at 12–13 °C (47 % combined) reflects agreement across early model runs on these conditions, with modest probability mass at 11 °C and 14 °C acknowledging remaining spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. Updated short-range guidance and KNMI briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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