Recent showers, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover over Amsterdam are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 14°C and 11°C daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and global models show overnight lows clustering around 12–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate westerly winds, while historical September averages near 11°C and localized cooling from rain provide a plausible path lower. Model consensus remains tight on timing of any breaks in cloud or precipitation intensity through the night, leaving traders weighing these small differences in radiative cooling and advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 16?
11°C 99%
14°C 52%
12°C 39%
13°C 24%
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
10%
11°C
99%
12°C
21%
13°C
24%
14°C
52%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99%
14°C 52%
12°C 39%
13°C 24%
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
8°C or below
$26 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
10%
11°C
$0 Vol.
99%
12°C
$19 Vol.
21%
13°C
$16 Vol.
24%
14°C
$26 Vol.
52%
15°C
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$13,184 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$42 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent showers, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover over Amsterdam are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 14°C and 11°C daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and global models show overnight lows clustering around 12–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate westerly winds, while historical September averages near 11°C and localized cooling from rain provide a plausible path lower. Model consensus remains tight on timing of any breaks in cloud or precipitation intensity through the night, leaving traders weighing these small differences in radiative cooling and advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$14,699End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent showers, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover over Amsterdam are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 14°C and 11°C daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and global models show overnight lows clustering around 12–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate westerly winds, while historical September averages near 11°C and localized cooling from rain provide a plausible path lower. Model consensus remains tight on timing of any breaks in cloud or precipitation intensity through the night, leaving traders weighing these small differences in radiative cooling and advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,699End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent showers, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover over Amsterdam are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 14°C and 11°C daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and global models show overnight lows clustering around 12–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate westerly winds, while historical September averages near 11°C and localized cooling from rain provide a plausible path lower. Model consensus remains tight on timing of any breaks in cloud or precipitation intensity through the night, leaving traders weighing these small differences in radiative cooling and advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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