Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam near 13°C on September 17, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southwesterly winds under a low-pressure system that limit overnight radiative cooling and promote warm-air advection. These conditions, consistent across GFS and similar runs, align with trader emphasis on 12–13°C outcomes while the 39% implied probability on 18°C or higher reflects uncertainty over potential model shifts in timing or reduced precipitation allowing stronger mixing. Historical September baselines near 12°C provide context, with final KNMI station readings determining resolution amid typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 17?
18°C or higher 67%
13°C 49%
15°C 37%
16°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
17%
11°C
14%
12°C
25%
13°C
34%
14°C
21%
15°C
37%
16°C
37%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
67%
18°C or higher 67%
13°C 49%
15°C 37%
16°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
2%
10°C
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
14%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$18 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
37%
16°C
$0 Vol.
37%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam near 13°C on September 17, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southwesterly winds under a low-pressure system that limit overnight radiative cooling and promote warm-air advection. These conditions, consistent across GFS and similar runs, align with trader emphasis on 12–13°C outcomes while the 39% implied probability on 18°C or higher reflects uncertainty over potential model shifts in timing or reduced precipitation allowing stronger mixing. Historical September baselines near 12°C provide context, with final KNMI station readings determining resolution amid typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$18End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam near 13°C on September 17, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southwesterly winds under a low-pressure system that limit overnight radiative cooling and promote warm-air advection. These conditions, consistent across GFS and similar runs, align with trader emphasis on 12–13°C outcomes while the 39% implied probability on 18°C or higher reflects uncertainty over potential model shifts in timing or reduced precipitation allowing stronger mixing. Historical September baselines near 12°C provide context, with final KNMI station readings determining resolution amid typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam near 13°C on September 17, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southwesterly winds under a low-pressure system that limit overnight radiative cooling and promote warm-air advection. These conditions, consistent across GFS and similar runs, align with trader emphasis on 12–13°C outcomes while the 39% implied probability on 18°C or higher reflects uncertainty over potential model shifts in timing or reduced precipitation allowing stronger mixing. Historical September baselines near 12°C provide context, with final KNMI station readings determining resolution amid typical forecast spread of 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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