Forecast models from agencies tracking Chengdu's subtropical climate indicate a daily maximum near 26°C on September 16, driven by warm, moist southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight cooling while allowing afternoon heating. Current surface observations and ensemble guidance show temperatures climbing steadily through the morning, with peak readings expected in the mid-afternoon before light rain arrives. Historical September averages near 25°C provide context for the modest anomaly. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 26°C reflects this tight model agreement, though a faster-moving front or increased convective activity could cap the high 1–2°C lower and shift resolution. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance later today remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 16?
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$79,816 Vol.
$79,816 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$79,816 Vol.
$79,816 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$494 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,421 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,071 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,222 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,829 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$8,060 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$14,666 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$12,863 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$10,473 Vol.
100%
27°C
$10,856 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$10,055 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies tracking Chengdu's subtropical climate indicate a daily maximum near 26°C on September 16, driven by warm, moist southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight cooling while allowing afternoon heating. Current surface observations and ensemble guidance show temperatures climbing steadily through the morning, with peak readings expected in the mid-afternoon before light rain arrives. Historical September averages near 25°C provide context for the modest anomaly. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 26°C reflects this tight model agreement, though a faster-moving front or increased convective activity could cap the high 1–2°C lower and shift resolution. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance later today remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$79,816End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies tracking Chengdu's subtropical climate indicate a daily maximum near 26°C on September 16, driven by warm, moist southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight cooling while allowing afternoon heating. Current surface observations and ensemble guidance show temperatures climbing steadily through the morning, with peak readings expected in the mid-afternoon before light rain arrives. Historical September averages near 25°C provide context for the modest anomaly. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 26°C reflects this tight model agreement, though a faster-moving front or increased convective activity could cap the high 1–2°C lower and shift resolution. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance later today remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$79,816End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies tracking Chengdu's subtropical climate indicate a daily maximum near 26°C on September 16, driven by warm, moist southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight cooling while allowing afternoon heating. Current surface observations and ensemble guidance show temperatures climbing steadily through the morning, with peak readings expected in the mid-afternoon before light rain arrives. Historical September averages near 25°C provide context for the modest anomaly. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 26°C reflects this tight model agreement, though a faster-moving front or increased convective activity could cap the high 1–2°C lower and shift resolution. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance later today remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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