Persistent easterly flow and widespread convection are anchoring Miami's September 18 high temperatures near the mid to upper 80s, with National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing 85–87°F as the most likely peak under 70–80% rain chances. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, driven by high moisture and weak steering, should limit afternoon insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping readings below the 89°F climatological average. Key variables include the timing of convective initiation relative to peak heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any brief clearing that could allow brief spikes into the low 90s. Lower outcomes hinge on earlier or heavier rainfall suppressing the diurnal rise, while rarer warmer scenarios would require suppressed convection and stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and National Hurricane Center steering analyses through September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 18?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 18?
88-89°F 36%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 28%
92-93°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
77°F or below
4%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
36%
90-91°F
28%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
5%
96°F or higher
3%
88-89°F 36%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 28%
92-93°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
77°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
6%
84-85°F
$13 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$46 Vol.
34%
88-89°F
$3 Vol.
36%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
28%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
11%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
5%
96°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent easterly flow and widespread convection are anchoring Miami's September 18 high temperatures near the mid to upper 80s, with National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing 85–87°F as the most likely peak under 70–80% rain chances. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, driven by high moisture and weak steering, should limit afternoon insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping readings below the 89°F climatological average. Key variables include the timing of convective initiation relative to peak heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any brief clearing that could allow brief spikes into the low 90s. Lower outcomes hinge on earlier or heavier rainfall suppressing the diurnal rise, while rarer warmer scenarios would require suppressed convection and stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and National Hurricane Center steering analyses through September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$61End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent easterly flow and widespread convection are anchoring Miami's September 18 high temperatures near the mid to upper 80s, with National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing 85–87°F as the most likely peak under 70–80% rain chances. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, driven by high moisture and weak steering, should limit afternoon insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping readings below the 89°F climatological average. Key variables include the timing of convective initiation relative to peak heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any brief clearing that could allow brief spikes into the low 90s. Lower outcomes hinge on earlier or heavier rainfall suppressing the diurnal rise, while rarer warmer scenarios would require suppressed convection and stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and National Hurricane Center steering analyses through September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent easterly flow and widespread convection are anchoring Miami's September 18 high temperatures near the mid to upper 80s, with National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models showing 85–87°F as the most likely peak under 70–80% rain chances. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, driven by high moisture and weak steering, should limit afternoon insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping readings below the 89°F climatological average. Key variables include the timing of convective initiation relative to peak heating, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any brief clearing that could allow brief spikes into the low 90s. Lower outcomes hinge on earlier or heavier rainfall suppressing the diurnal rise, while rarer warmer scenarios would require suppressed convection and stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and National Hurricane Center steering analyses through September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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