**Forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS drives the close market odds between 26°C and 27°C for Madrid’s September 17 high.** Latest runs show a partly cloudy day with moderate northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limiting daytime heating, yielding afternoon maxima near 25–26°C after morning lows around 15–16°C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms carry a 25–38% chance, further capping insolation. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2°C for the date, following a warmer-than-normal early September that included several days above 34°C. Ensemble spreads and minor model differences in cloud timing create the narrow 26–28°C trading range, with resolution hinging on the exact peak observed at official stations such as Retiro or Barajas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
27°C 40%
26°C 33%
28°C 18%
25°C 9%
NEW
$23,509 Vol.
NEW
$23,509 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
9%
26°C
33%
27°C
40%
28°C
18%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 40%
26°C 33%
28°C 18%
25°C 9%
NEW
$23,509 Vol.
NEW
$23,509 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$863 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,208 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$568 Vol.
1%
24°C
$406 Vol.
2%
25°C
$4,059 Vol.
9%
26°C
$5,676 Vol.
33%
27°C
$3,797 Vol.
40%
28°C
$4,753 Vol.
18%
29°C
$793 Vol.
1%
30°C
$364 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS drives the close market odds between 26°C and 27°C for Madrid’s September 17 high.** Latest runs show a partly cloudy day with moderate northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limiting daytime heating, yielding afternoon maxima near 25–26°C after morning lows around 15–16°C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms carry a 25–38% chance, further capping insolation. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2°C for the date, following a warmer-than-normal early September that included several days above 34°C. Ensemble spreads and minor model differences in cloud timing create the narrow 26–28°C trading range, with resolution hinging on the exact peak observed at official stations such as Retiro or Barajas.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$23,509End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS drives the close market odds between 26°C and 27°C for Madrid’s September 17 high.** Latest runs show a partly cloudy day with moderate northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limiting daytime heating, yielding afternoon maxima near 25–26°C after morning lows around 15–16°C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms carry a 25–38% chance, further capping insolation. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2°C for the date, following a warmer-than-normal early September that included several days above 34°C. Ensemble spreads and minor model differences in cloud timing create the narrow 26–28°C trading range, with resolution hinging on the exact peak observed at official stations such as Retiro or Barajas.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,509End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS drives the close market odds between 26°C and 27°C for Madrid’s September 17 high.** Latest runs show a partly cloudy day with moderate northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limiting daytime heating, yielding afternoon maxima near 25–26°C after morning lows around 15–16°C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms carry a 25–38% chance, further capping insolation. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2°C for the date, following a warmer-than-normal early September that included several days above 34°C. Ensemble spreads and minor model differences in cloud timing create the narrow 26–28°C trading range, with resolution hinging on the exact peak observed at official stations such as Retiro or Barajas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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