Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a daily minimum of 12–14°C for Mexico City on September 16, 2026, with model consensus centering on 13°C under overcast skies, light northeast winds, and isolated light rain. This aligns with September climatology, where average overnight lows typically range 12–13°C at the city’s high-elevation stations. Trader positioning at 95% implied probability for 13°C reflects high confidence in these near-term observations from authoritative monitoring networks. A realistic shift to 12°C or 11°C would require stronger-than-expected radiative cooling or heavier localized showers lowering readings below the forecast envelope before official daily minimums are recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 16?
13°C 95%
12°C 11%
10°C 9%
11°C 8%
$549 Vol.
$549 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
3%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
9%
11°C
8%
12°C
11%
13°C
95%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 95%
12°C 11%
10°C 9%
11°C 8%
$549 Vol.
$549 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
$115 Vol.
3%
7°C
$46 Vol.
1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
7%
10°C
$0 Vol.
9%
11°C
$11 Vol.
8%
12°C
$16 Vol.
11%
13°C
$14 Vol.
95%
14°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$73 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a daily minimum of 12–14°C for Mexico City on September 16, 2026, with model consensus centering on 13°C under overcast skies, light northeast winds, and isolated light rain. This aligns with September climatology, where average overnight lows typically range 12–13°C at the city’s high-elevation stations. Trader positioning at 95% implied probability for 13°C reflects high confidence in these near-term observations from authoritative monitoring networks. A realistic shift to 12°C or 11°C would require stronger-than-expected radiative cooling or heavier localized showers lowering readings below the forecast envelope before official daily minimums are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$549End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a daily minimum of 12–14°C for Mexico City on September 16, 2026, with model consensus centering on 13°C under overcast skies, light northeast winds, and isolated light rain. This aligns with September climatology, where average overnight lows typically range 12–13°C at the city’s high-elevation stations. Trader positioning at 95% implied probability for 13°C reflects high confidence in these near-term observations from authoritative monitoring networks. A realistic shift to 12°C or 11°C would require stronger-than-expected radiative cooling or heavier localized showers lowering readings below the forecast envelope before official daily minimums are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$549End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a daily minimum of 12–14°C for Mexico City on September 16, 2026, with model consensus centering on 13°C under overcast skies, light northeast winds, and isolated light rain. This aligns with September climatology, where average overnight lows typically range 12–13°C at the city’s high-elevation stations. Trader positioning at 95% implied probability for 13°C reflects high confidence in these near-term observations from authoritative monitoring networks. A realistic shift to 12°C or 11°C would require stronger-than-expected radiative cooling or heavier localized showers lowering readings below the forecast envelope before official daily minimums are recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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