Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate an overnight low near 25°C for Manila on September 16, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone producing persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling in this tropical setting. Historical September averages show similar minima around 25–26°C with small diurnal ranges, while recent model consensus points to 24–26°C depending on exact thunderstorm timing and any brief clear spells. The closely matched market odds around these levels reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum from the Science Garden station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 16?
20°C or below 97%
24°C 48%
25°C 46%
22°C 19%
$155 Vol.
$155 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
97%
21°C
18%
22°C
19%
23°C
18%
24°C
48%
25°C
46%
26°C
-
27°C
48%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
20°C or below 97%
24°C 48%
25°C 46%
22°C 19%
$155 Vol.
$155 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
97%
21°C
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$100 Vol.
48%
25°C
$30 Vol.
46%
26°C
$5 Vol.
-
27°C
$5 Vol.
48%
28°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate an overnight low near 25°C for Manila on September 16, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone producing persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling in this tropical setting. Historical September averages show similar minima around 25–26°C with small diurnal ranges, while recent model consensus points to 24–26°C depending on exact thunderstorm timing and any brief clear spells. The closely matched market odds around these levels reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum from the Science Garden station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$155End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate an overnight low near 25°C for Manila on September 16, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone producing persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling in this tropical setting. Historical September averages show similar minima around 25–26°C with small diurnal ranges, while recent model consensus points to 24–26°C depending on exact thunderstorm timing and any brief clear spells. The closely matched market odds around these levels reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum from the Science Garden station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$155End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate an overnight low near 25°C for Manila on September 16, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone producing persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling in this tropical setting. Historical September averages show similar minima around 25–26°C with small diurnal ranges, while recent model consensus points to 24–26°C depending on exact thunderstorm timing and any brief clear spells. The closely matched market odds around these levels reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum from the Science Garden station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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