Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City on September 16, 2026, indicates a stable high-pressure pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, producing an overnight low near 61–64°F. Official forecasts from the New York, NY NWS office and GFS-based outlooks consistently place the daily minimum in this narrow range, aligning closely with the 30-year climatological average low of 61.6°F for the date. The market’s overwhelming 91% implied probability on 64–65°F reflects this consensus across multiple runs, with minimal model spread or incoming frontal activity to drive further cooling. A realistic shift toward 62–63°F or lower would require an unforecast increase in radiative cooling or wind shift, though current observations and short-range guidance show little support for such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 16?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 16?
64-65°F 97%
62-63°F 3%
60-61°F 2%
58-59°F 1.4%
$6,315 Vol.
$6,315 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
97%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
64-65°F 97%
62-63°F 3%
60-61°F 2%
58-59°F 1.4%
$6,315 Vol.
$6,315 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
55°F or below
$293 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$622 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$787 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$1,028 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$1,409 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$1,045 Vol.
97%
66-67°F
$968 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$33 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$26 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$49 Vol.
<1%
74°F or higher
$54 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City on September 16, 2026, indicates a stable high-pressure pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, producing an overnight low near 61–64°F. Official forecasts from the New York, NY NWS office and GFS-based outlooks consistently place the daily minimum in this narrow range, aligning closely with the 30-year climatological average low of 61.6°F for the date. The market’s overwhelming 91% implied probability on 64–65°F reflects this consensus across multiple runs, with minimal model spread or incoming frontal activity to drive further cooling. A realistic shift toward 62–63°F or lower would require an unforecast increase in radiative cooling or wind shift, though current observations and short-range guidance show little support for such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,315End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City on September 16, 2026, indicates a stable high-pressure pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, producing an overnight low near 61–64°F. Official forecasts from the New York, NY NWS office and GFS-based outlooks consistently place the daily minimum in this narrow range, aligning closely with the 30-year climatological average low of 61.6°F for the date. The market’s overwhelming 91% implied probability on 64–65°F reflects this consensus across multiple runs, with minimal model spread or incoming frontal activity to drive further cooling. A realistic shift toward 62–63°F or lower would require an unforecast increase in radiative cooling or wind shift, though current observations and short-range guidance show little support for such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,315End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City on September 16, 2026, indicates a stable high-pressure pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, producing an overnight low near 61–64°F. Official forecasts from the New York, NY NWS office and GFS-based outlooks consistently place the daily minimum in this narrow range, aligning closely with the 30-year climatological average low of 61.6°F for the date. The market’s overwhelming 91% implied probability on 64–65°F reflects this consensus across multiple runs, with minimal model spread or incoming frontal activity to drive further cooling. A realistic shift toward 62–63°F or lower would require an unforecast increase in radiative cooling or wind shift, though current observations and short-range guidance show little support for such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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