**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models indicate a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 17, 2026, with a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms under persistent upper-level ridging.** This setup supports the market's heaviest weighting on the 98-99°F bin, as guidance clusters around 97-100°F amid above-normal heat and humidity. East to southeast winds and increasing cloud cover may limit full realization of peak potential, keeping most runs from exceeding 100°F while still favoring the high end of the upper 90s. Historical September averages near 91-93°F underscore the anomalous warmth, though isolated convection introduces minor downside risk to the daily maximum. Updated NWS briefings and model consensus through the morning of September 16 reinforce this narrow range as the most probable outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 17?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 17?
98-99°F 51%
96-97°F 29%
100-101°F 8%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
29%
98-99°F
51%
100-101°F
8%
102-103°F
2%
104°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 51%
96-97°F 29%
100-101°F 8%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
85°F or below
$421 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$197 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$90 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$90 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$153 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$353 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$1,270 Vol.
29%
98-99°F
$295 Vol.
51%
100-101°F
$268 Vol.
8%
102-103°F
$26 Vol.
2%
104°F or higher
$759 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models indicate a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 17, 2026, with a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms under persistent upper-level ridging.**
This setup supports the market's heaviest weighting on the 98-99°F bin, as guidance clusters around 97-100°F amid above-normal heat and humidity. East to southeast winds and increasing cloud cover may limit full realization of peak potential, keeping most runs from exceeding 100°F while still favoring the high end of the upper 90s. Historical September averages near 91-93°F underscore the anomalous warmth, though isolated convection introduces minor downside risk to the daily maximum. Updated NWS briefings and model consensus through the morning of September 16 reinforce this narrow range as the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,922End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models indicate a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 17, 2026, with a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms under persistent upper-level ridging.**
This setup supports the market's heaviest weighting on the 98-99°F bin, as guidance clusters around 97-100°F amid above-normal heat and humidity. East to southeast winds and increasing cloud cover may limit full realization of peak potential, keeping most runs from exceeding 100°F while still favoring the high end of the upper 90s. Historical September averages near 91-93°F underscore the anomalous warmth, though isolated convection introduces minor downside risk to the daily maximum. Updated NWS briefings and model consensus through the morning of September 16 reinforce this narrow range as the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,922End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models indicate a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 17, 2026, with a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms under persistent upper-level ridging.** This setup supports the market's heaviest weighting on the 98-99°F bin, as guidance clusters around 97-100°F amid above-normal heat and humidity. East to southeast winds and increasing cloud cover may limit full realization of peak potential, keeping most runs from exceeding 100°F while still favoring the high end of the upper 90s. Historical September averages near 91-93°F underscore the anomalous warmth, though isolated convection introduces minor downside risk to the daily maximum. Updated NWS briefings and model consensus through the morning of September 16 reinforce this narrow range as the most probable outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions