Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin indicates overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s on September 17, driven by persistent upper-level ridging, elevated Gulf moisture, and light southeast winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions support the market's concentration of implied probability around 72–77°F, with 74–75°F holding the highest share. A weak disturbance may bring isolated afternoon storms, but any associated cloud cover or brief showers is unlikely to alter the minimum temperature substantially. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast heavily while acknowledging typical model spread of a few degrees and the potential for slightly stronger cooling if winds decouple more than expected overnight. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 17?
72-73°F 39%
78-79°F 38%
80-81°F 38%
82-83°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
69°F or below
3%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
38%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 39%
78-79°F 38%
80-81°F 38%
82-83°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$3 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
24%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
38%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$14 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin indicates overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s on September 17, driven by persistent upper-level ridging, elevated Gulf moisture, and light southeast winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions support the market's concentration of implied probability around 72–77°F, with 74–75°F holding the highest share. A weak disturbance may bring isolated afternoon storms, but any associated cloud cover or brief showers is unlikely to alter the minimum temperature substantially. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast heavily while acknowledging typical model spread of a few degrees and the potential for slightly stronger cooling if winds decouple more than expected overnight. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$17End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin indicates overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s on September 17, driven by persistent upper-level ridging, elevated Gulf moisture, and light southeast winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions support the market's concentration of implied probability around 72–77°F, with 74–75°F holding the highest share. A weak disturbance may bring isolated afternoon storms, but any associated cloud cover or brief showers is unlikely to alter the minimum temperature substantially. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast heavily while acknowledging typical model spread of a few degrees and the potential for slightly stronger cooling if winds decouple more than expected overnight. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin indicates overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s on September 17, driven by persistent upper-level ridging, elevated Gulf moisture, and light southeast winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions support the market's concentration of implied probability around 72–77°F, with 74–75°F holding the highest share. A weak disturbance may bring isolated afternoon storms, but any associated cloud cover or brief showers is unlikely to alter the minimum temperature substantially. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast heavily while acknowledging typical model spread of a few degrees and the potential for slightly stronger cooling if winds decouple more than expected overnight. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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