**Trader consensus favoring 33°C (61.5% implied probability) for Lucknow’s September 12 high reflects late-monsoon conditions moderating peak temperatures near the seasonal average of 33–34°C.** Persistent easterly flow, high humidity (70–95%), and scattered cloud cover with thunderstorm chances limit daytime solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. Official forecasts from sources like IMD and global models cluster between 32–34°C, with partly cloudy skies and 30–50% rain probability suppressing extremes. Historical September maxima average near 34°C but drop under active monsoon phases, aligning with the market’s tight distribution around 32–34°C and low odds for outliers above 35°C or below 31°C. Updated model runs and any overnight rainfall will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on September 12?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on September 12?
33°C 62%
34°C 23%
32°C 13%
35°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
13%
33°C
62%
34°C
23%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
3%
33°C 62%
34°C 23%
32°C 13%
35°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
26°C or below
$403 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$356 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$238 Vol.
2%
32°C
$2,462 Vol.
13%
33°C
$2,533 Vol.
62%
34°C
$1,153 Vol.
23%
35°C
$697 Vol.
3%
36°C or higher
$150 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus favoring 33°C (61.5% implied probability) for Lucknow’s September 12 high reflects late-monsoon conditions moderating peak temperatures near the seasonal average of 33–34°C.** Persistent easterly flow, high humidity (70–95%), and scattered cloud cover with thunderstorm chances limit daytime solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. Official forecasts from sources like IMD and global models cluster between 32–34°C, with partly cloudy skies and 30–50% rain probability suppressing extremes. Historical September maxima average near 34°C but drop under active monsoon phases, aligning with the market’s tight distribution around 32–34°C and low odds for outliers above 35°C or below 31°C. Updated model runs and any overnight rainfall will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,600End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus favoring 33°C (61.5% implied probability) for Lucknow’s September 12 high reflects late-monsoon conditions moderating peak temperatures near the seasonal average of 33–34°C.** Persistent easterly flow, high humidity (70–95%), and scattered cloud cover with thunderstorm chances limit daytime solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. Official forecasts from sources like IMD and global models cluster between 32–34°C, with partly cloudy skies and 30–50% rain probability suppressing extremes. Historical September maxima average near 34°C but drop under active monsoon phases, aligning with the market’s tight distribution around 32–34°C and low odds for outliers above 35°C or below 31°C. Updated model runs and any overnight rainfall will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,600End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favoring 33°C (61.5% implied probability) for Lucknow’s September 12 high reflects late-monsoon conditions moderating peak temperatures near the seasonal average of 33–34°C.** Persistent easterly flow, high humidity (70–95%), and scattered cloud cover with thunderstorm chances limit daytime solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. Official forecasts from sources like IMD and global models cluster between 32–34°C, with partly cloudy skies and 30–50% rain probability suppressing extremes. Historical September maxima average near 34°C but drop under active monsoon phases, aligning with the market’s tight distribution around 32–34°C and low odds for outliers above 35°C or below 31°C. Updated model runs and any overnight rainfall will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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