Recent forecast models for Mexico City on September 12 indicate a primary driver of trader sentiment around afternoon heating potential amid variable cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms typical of the rainy season. Historical September averages place daily highs near 23–25°C, with official measurements influenced by urban heat effects and elevation. Current consensus from multiple sources projects a peak in the low-to-mid 20s°C under mostly cloudy skies and precipitation chances exceeding 70%, which would cap temperatures below 26°C. However, any delay in rain onset or partial clearing could allow brief warming toward the 25–26°C range favored by market-implied odds. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later today represent the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 12?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 12?
26°C or higher 55%
25°C 39%
24°C 7%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
7%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
55%
26°C or higher 55%
25°C 39%
24°C 7%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
16°C or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$129 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$15 Vol.
1%
23°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,055 Vol.
7%
25°C
$2,324 Vol.
39%
26°C or higher
$3,075 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models for Mexico City on September 12 indicate a primary driver of trader sentiment around afternoon heating potential amid variable cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms typical of the rainy season. Historical September averages place daily highs near 23–25°C, with official measurements influenced by urban heat effects and elevation. Current consensus from multiple sources projects a peak in the low-to-mid 20s°C under mostly cloudy skies and precipitation chances exceeding 70%, which would cap temperatures below 26°C. However, any delay in rain onset or partial clearing could allow brief warming toward the 25–26°C range favored by market-implied odds. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later today represent the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,114End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models for Mexico City on September 12 indicate a primary driver of trader sentiment around afternoon heating potential amid variable cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms typical of the rainy season. Historical September averages place daily highs near 23–25°C, with official measurements influenced by urban heat effects and elevation. Current consensus from multiple sources projects a peak in the low-to-mid 20s°C under mostly cloudy skies and precipitation chances exceeding 70%, which would cap temperatures below 26°C. However, any delay in rain onset or partial clearing could allow brief warming toward the 25–26°C range favored by market-implied odds. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later today represent the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,114End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models for Mexico City on September 12 indicate a primary driver of trader sentiment around afternoon heating potential amid variable cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms typical of the rainy season. Historical September averages place daily highs near 23–25°C, with official measurements influenced by urban heat effects and elevation. Current consensus from multiple sources projects a peak in the low-to-mid 20s°C under mostly cloudy skies and precipitation chances exceeding 70%, which would cap temperatures below 26°C. However, any delay in rain onset or partial clearing could allow brief warming toward the 25–26°C range favored by market-implied odds. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later today represent the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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